{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-cs2-echo-ice-2026-06-20","type":"pm","now":1781959610617,"market":{"id":"2604019","slug":"cs2-echo-ice-2026-06-20","question":"Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs","yesProb":0.605,"noProb":0.395,"liquidity":13662.2317,"volume24h":29124.55469500002,"endDate":"2026-06-20T18:00:00Z","category":"Sports"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781959604256,"ageMs":6361,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":32,"range":{"min":0.27,"max":0.59,"span":0.31999999999999995},"moments":{"mean":0.34453125000000007,"stdev":0.053737104604642795,"cv":0.1559716414828634,"skew":3.106304515577251,"kurtosis":14.017479027711808,"ci95":{"lo":0.3259122931770359,"hi":0.3631502068229642,"halfWidth":0.018618956822964144}},"returns":{"mean":0.007903225806451612,"stdev":0.06102969486990721,"annualisedVol":5.712066458454983,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":2.1951219512195124,"skew":4.633773303361967,"kurtosis":24.695606525051858,"gainToPain":2.1951219512195124,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":0.25,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":6,"perDayMove":0.2989832231780497,"perHorizonMove":0.14949161158902485,"terminalVariance":0.2419,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0.042499999999999954,"var99":0.065,"es95":0.065,"es90":0.04250000000000001,"es99":0.065,"esTailConcentration":0,"ulcerIndex":0.12527746981977425,"cdar95":0.24666666666666667,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.19866666666666666,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.27999999999999997,"drawdownPeak":0.375,"drawdownTrough":0.27,"drawdownDurationBars":26},"structure":{"hurst":0.8822474814605182,"autocorr1":-0.18597138783526684,"autocorr2":-0.025115500056341344,"trendT":-0.45280330372563365,"halfLifeMR":0.2922429434509376,"permEntropy":0.9572877264098987,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.41379310344827586,"rollSpreadBps":1552.7853587212305},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":898.6905189244795,"p":7.109406487505173e-196,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":1.3009705787835848,"p":0.933755251215256,"reject":false},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":1.1793606768840956,"p":0.2771513877879056,"reject":false},{"lag":2,"stat":1.2016122794692998,"p":0.5537873760947641,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":1.2189080267085228,"p":0.7519773349561634,"reject":false},{"lag":5,"stat":1.3009705787835848,"p":0.933755251215256,"reject":false},{"lag":10,"stat":1.5424139140089004,"p":0.9984696310503015,"reject":false}],"adf":{"stat":-2.7009455472500044,"p":0.07742318150861992,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":0.19406656211854392,"p":0.3671326425876962,"reject":false,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":1.950118392338838,"p":0.0511618719935385,"reject":false,"runs":15,"n1":13,"n2":8},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-2.7587640539369613,"p":0.005802153573523983,"reject":true,"vr":0.2613691293321389,"horizon":3}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"ambiguous","autocorrelated":false,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"fat"}}}