{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-june-2026","type":"pm","now":1781955363232,"market":{"id":"2410566","slug":"will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-june-2026","question":"Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?","yesProb":0.0055,"noProb":0.9945,"liquidity":94317.94356,"volume24h":21916.757403,"endDate":"2026-07-01T04:00:00Z","category":"Crypto"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781955350561,"ageMs":12671,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":453,"range":{"min":0.004,"max":0.235,"span":0.23099999999999998},"moments":{"mean":0.03691280353200892,"stdev":0.04173594315157068,"cv":1.1306630534139563,"skew":3.0631776018953687,"kurtosis":9.847925565782498,"ci95":{"lo":0.03306938922451029,"hi":0.040756217839507544,"halfWidth":0.003843414307498628}},"returns":{"mean":-0.0005077433628318586,"stdev":0.004909767381339949,"annualisedVol":0.4595290479093775,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":0.5980735551663751,"skew":-1.2119273794526375,"kurtosis":25.78175039638073,"gainToPain":0.5980735551663751,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":10.683295925925925,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":256.3991022222222,"perDayMove":0.02405284968008726,"perHorizonMove":0.07861748860005968,"terminalVariance":0.00546975,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0.007949999999999981,"var99":0.019999999999999997,"es95":0.015086956521739135,"es90":0.009815217391304351,"es99":0.026999999999999996,"esTailConcentration":2.2597938144329874,"ulcerIndex":0.8613903415537044,"cdar95":0.976595744680851,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.9744680851063829,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.9829787234042553,"drawdownPeak":0.235,"drawdownTrough":0.004,"drawdownDurationBars":447},"structure":{"hurst":0.9058793403912307,"autocorr1":-0.1902159565634055,"autocorr2":0.0011688388035674825,"trendT":-20.18988476463244,"halfLifeMR":21.804547035177546,"permEntropy":0.9372220305229069,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.48,"rollSpreadBps":1161.4879244265967},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":12629.138494911776,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":47.25289575476009,"p":1.9463088474225287e-8,"reject":true},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":16.463100788980594,"p":0.00008966602911208987,"reject":true},{"lag":2,"stat":16.46372379324013,"p":0.0003485634692407258,"reject":true},{"lag":3,"stat":24.36800002339425,"p":0.00003393090667580534,"reject":true},{"lag":5,"stat":47.25289575476009,"p":1.9463088474225287e-8,"reject":true},{"lag":10,"stat":78.05021912880039,"p":7.56961160419678e-12,"reject":true}],"adf":{"stat":-5.856058167005216,"p":0.000007686415286639753,"reject":true,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":3.7305403336879976,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":-0.289945793508624,"p":0.7718578414634223,"reject":false,"runs":126,"n1":110,"n2":151},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-4.360210235017991,"p":0.000013003817646017879,"reject":true,"vr":0.6163172847968335,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":true,"efficient":false,"tailRisk":"fat"}}}