TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “rbc · canadian · open” (3 markets)
Top terms: rbccanadianopenpgatourwinner
- ★ Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?0.1¢ YES · $310.2k 24h
- Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?0.1¢ YES · $39.9k 24h
- Will Max McGreevy win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?0.1¢ YES · $35.0k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -8.109 | 144 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.003 | 144 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · 2026-rbc-canadian-open-winner-kevin-roy-win · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -92.31%
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-92.31%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -92.31%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-2026-rbc-canadian-open-winner-kevin-roy-win/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →