TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “crypto · bitcoin · 000” (45 markets)
Top terms: cryptobitcoin000june14price
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15?100.0¢ YES · $65.4k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14?100.0¢ YES · $54.0k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14?100.0¢ YES · $212.1k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14?99.9¢ YES · $214.5k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15?96.7¢ YES · $24.9k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14?92.5¢ YES · $101.2k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14?0.4¢ YES · $208.8k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15?13.5¢ YES · $34.6k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $159.8k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15?1.9¢ YES · $37.6k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $76.2k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $61.8k 24h
- ★ Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?76.5¢ YES · $140.3k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14?3.5¢ YES · $27.8k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14?0.5¢ YES · $47.9k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $45.7k 24h
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $34.2k 24h
- Ethereum Up or Down on June 14?27.5¢ YES · $42.9k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?2.0¢ YES · $34.1k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?6.6¢ YES · $106.5k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?10.5¢ YES · $79.8k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?20.4¢ YES · $24.1k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?0.1¢ YES · $24.5k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?0.7¢ YES · $23.9k 24h
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?0.1¢ YES · $231.7k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?0.3¢ YES · $77.2k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?1.9¢ YES · $30.9k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?93.0¢ YES · $81.9k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?12.5¢ YES · $41.9k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?58.5¢ YES · $24.7k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?0.9¢ YES · $25.2k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?27.5¢ YES · $54.4k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?12.5¢ YES · $39.7k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?3.5¢ YES · $67.4k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?2.1¢ YES · $157.9k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June?1.1¢ YES · $84.6k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?0.5¢ YES · $24.0k 24h
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14?1.1¢ YES · $27.6k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $30.5k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14?0.4¢ YES · $36.6k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14?90.5¢ YES · $27.9k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14?0.6¢ YES · $26.5k 24h
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $32.9k 24h
- Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 14?0.3¢ YES · $33.3k 24h
- Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 14?0.3¢ YES · $63.7k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.785 | 45 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.476 | 45 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.162 | 45 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.944 | 45 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.935 | 45 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.865 | 45 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.578 | 45 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.517 | 45 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-14-2026 · fresh · feed 16s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
934.93%
max drawdown
29.37%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
13.33%
RMS drawdown
pain index
10.22%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
28.44%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.07
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.07
upside/downside
roll spread
0.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-14-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →