TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “argentina · algeria · win” (5 markets)
Top terms: argentinaalgeriawinfifacupworld
- Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?9.5¢ YES · $26.1k 24h
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?70.5¢ YES · $119.0k 24h
- ★ Spread: Argentina (-1.5)43.5¢ YES · $47.9k 24h
- Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $3.55M 24h
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?7.8¢ YES · $1.25M 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (4 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.720 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.654 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.471 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.367 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-arg-alg-2026-06-16-spread-home-1pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.35%
realized vol (ann.)
29.60%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.35%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change +2.35%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-arg-alg-2026-06-16-spread-home-1pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →