TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “iraq · norway · 16” (2 markets)

Top terms: iraqnorway1606marketswin

★ Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?5.5¢ YES · $56.3k 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.537.5¢ YES · $38.5k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (1 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	-2.280	169	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-irq-nor-2026-06-16-irq · fresh · feed 0s old

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-irq-nor-2026-06-16-irq/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →