TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “uruguay · saudi · arabia” (5 markets)
Top terms: uruguaysaudiarabiawinfifacup
- Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?21.5¢ YES · $24.1k 24h
- Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?11.5¢ YES · $43.6k 24h
- ★ Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?65.5¢ YES · $225.2k 24h
- Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $263.1k 24h
- Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.9¢ YES · $1.93M 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (4 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.292 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.762 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.762 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.544 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-ksa-ury-2026-06-15-ury · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
67.99%
max drawdown
1.50%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.44%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.39%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.50%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
380
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ksa-ury-2026-06-15-ury/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →