TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “highest · temperature · weather” (17 markets)
Top terms: highesttemperatureweatherclimate15june
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $35.0k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15?2.6¢ YES · $23.2k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $24.2k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $24.4k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $28.4k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $23.7k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15?99.5¢ YES · $54.9k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15?0.2¢ YES · $27.2k 24h
- ★ Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $25.6k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $29.9k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $22.3k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15?100.0¢ YES · $40.3k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15?0.4¢ YES · $24.5k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $30.1k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $29.7k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $27.4k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15?0.1¢ YES · $28.5k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -5.603 | 53 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.721 | 53 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.351 | 53 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.257 | 53 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.830 | 53 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.646 | 53 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.567 | 53 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.476 | 53 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · highest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-june-15-2026-31c · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
22.77%
max drawdown
91.67%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
74.72%
RMS drawdown
pain index
70.11%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
91.67%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.15
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.15
upside/downside
roll spread
94.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
651
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-highest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-june-15-2026-31c/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →