TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “highest · temperature · weather” (8 markets)

Top terms: highesttemperatureweatherclimate14june

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $29.2k 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14?99.9¢ YES · $52.5k 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $26.6k 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $43.0k 24h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $28.5k 24h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $26.9k 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $29.4k 24h
★ Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $33.3k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14?	-3.469	43	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14?	-3.129	64	no rejection · independent
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14?	-3.099	64	no rejection · independent
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14?	-2.956	43	no rejection · independent
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14?	-2.664	64	no rejection · independent
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14?	-2.467	64	no rejection · independent
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 14?	-2.386	43	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · highest-temperature-in-paris-on-june-14-2026-24c · fresh · feed 0s old

realized vol (ann.)

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max drawdown

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sharpe

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ulcer index

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RMS drawdown

pain index

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mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

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Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

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ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

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cond. drawdown

gain/pain

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Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

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ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

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upside/downside

roll spread

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implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

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24h Δ

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flow lean

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carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-highest-temperature-in-paris-on-june-14-2026-24c/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →