TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “highest · temperature · weather” (9 markets)
Top terms: highesttemperatureweatherclimate14seoul
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $32.0k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $30.3k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14?99.7¢ YES · $35.3k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $28.1k 24h
- ★ Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14?99.7¢ YES · $39.3k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $42.5k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14?0.4¢ YES · $31.8k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14?0.1¢ YES · $30.5k 24h
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14?89.3¢ YES · $39.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -5.858 | 57 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.935 | 57 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.428 | 57 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.246 | 57 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.776 | 57 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.690 | 57 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.911 | 57 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.858 | 57 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · highest-temperature-in-seoul-on-june-14-2026-26c · fresh · feed 17s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
245.43%
max drawdown
0.35%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.14%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.31%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
17.20
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
17.20
upside/downside
roll spread
1.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1408
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-highest-temperature-in-seoul-on-june-14-2026-26c/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →