TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “liquid · team · game” (4 markets)
Top terms: liquidteamgamelollyonsports
- LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs100.0¢ YES · $905.4k 24h
- Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)100.0¢ YES · $42.0k 24h
- ★ LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner100.0¢ YES · $449.1k 24h
- LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner100.0¢ YES · $590.2k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (3 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.759 | 25 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.064 | 25 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.780 | 25 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · lol-ly-tl2-2026-06-14-game2 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
2074.26%
max drawdown
3.43%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.83%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.20%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.43%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
17.15
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
17.15
upside/downside
roll spread
19.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
568
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-lol-ly-tl2-2026-06-14-game2/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →