TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “angeles · los · angels” (5 markets)
Top terms: angeleslosangelstampabayrays
- ★ Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels99.4¢ YES · $462.5k 24h
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)73.5¢ YES · $33.0k 24h
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.512.5¢ YES · $57.7k 24h
- Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0.9¢ YES · $65.1k 24h
- Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?0.7¢ YES · $24.0k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.894 | 155 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.487 | 155 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · mlb-tb-laa-2026-06-14 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
2748.63%
max drawdown
39.38%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
15.54%
RMS drawdown
pain index
9.20%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
39.38%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.14
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.14
upside/downside
roll spread
21.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
672
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-mlb-tb-laa-2026-06-14/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →