TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “ufc · freedom · 250” (8 markets)

Top terms: ufcfreedom250maincardsports

UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)21.5¢ YES · $85.6k 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)49.5¢ YES · $627.8k 24h
★ UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)22.5¢ YES · $172.5k 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)20.5¢ YES · $696.7k 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)27.5¢ YES · $41.7k 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)19.5¢ YES · $102.6k 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)45.5¢ YES · $299.9k 24h
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250?0.6¢ YES · $628.6k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	-4.638	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)	-4.522	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)	-4.136	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	-3.670	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250?	-3.616	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	-3.503	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	-3.466	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · ufc-der-jos52-2026-06-14 · fresh · feed 0s old

realized vol (ann.)

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max drawdown

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sharpe

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ulcer index

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RMS drawdown

pain index

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mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

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Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

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ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

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cond. drawdown

gain/pain

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Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

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ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

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upside/downside

roll spread

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implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

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24h Δ

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flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-ufc-der-jos52-2026-06-14/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →