TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “crypto · bitcoin · reach” (21 markets)
Top terms: cryptobitcoinreachdip000june
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?1.6¢ YES · $144.5k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?2.7¢ YES · $79.8k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?5.1¢ YES · $80.2k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?7.6¢ YES · $133.3k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14?0.1¢ YES · $23.6k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?14.8¢ YES · $41.3k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?0.1¢ YES · $50.8k 24h
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?0.1¢ YES · $39.8k 24h
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?0.1¢ YES · $112.5k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?0.1¢ YES · $149.1k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?71.5¢ YES · $51.6k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?0.1¢ YES · $48.7k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?39.5¢ YES · $53.4k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?17.5¢ YES · $28.0k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?9.5¢ YES · $34.6k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?4.2¢ YES · $70.6k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?2.4¢ YES · $128.1k 24h
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June?1.3¢ YES · $26.5k 24h
- ★ Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?0.4¢ YES · $25.6k 24h
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?16.5¢ YES · $30.7k 24h
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14?0.1¢ YES · $40.6k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.062 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.747 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.688 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.494 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.425 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.417 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.393 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.388 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-bitcoin-reach-90k-in-june-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
6.46%
max drawdown
18.18%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
14.75%
RMS drawdown
pain index
12.24%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
18.18%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
842
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-bitcoin-reach-90k-in-june-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →