TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “nomination · 2028 · president” (34 markets)
Top terms: nomination2028presidentpoliticsdemocraticwin
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $32.5k 24h
- Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $95.1k 24h
- Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $48.6k 24h
- Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.9¢ YES · $26.9k 24h
- Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2.4¢ YES · $36.6k 24h
- Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $29.9k 24h
- Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $30.3k 24h
- Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $33.7k 24h
- Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $27.1k 24h
- ★ Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1.4¢ YES · $245.3k 24h
- Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $33.7k 24h
- Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $29.0k 24h
- Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $42.8k 24h
- Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $30.4k 24h
- Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $29.8k 24h
- Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $670.5k 24h
- Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $29.4k 24h
- Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.9¢ YES · $29.6k 24h
- Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $38.1k 24h
- Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $35.3k 24h
- Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $40.5k 24h
- Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $37.9k 24h
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.9¢ YES · $51.5k 24h
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $28.3k 24h
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.8¢ YES · $388.1k 24h
- Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $33.4k 24h
- Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $45.7k 24h
- Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $32.9k 24h
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2.9¢ YES · $29.0k 24h
- Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $29.5k 24h
- Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $28.1k 24h
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $28.1k 24h
- Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1.1¢ YES · $116.0k 24h
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $26.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.422 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-glenn-youngkin-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.00%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-glenn-youngkin-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →