TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “nomination · 2028 · president” (39 markets)
Top terms: nomination2028presidentpoliticsdemocraticwin
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $22.6k 24h
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2.4¢ YES · $45.0k 24h
- Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $20.6k 24h
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $24.0k 24h
- Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $28.2k 24h
- Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2.1¢ YES · $55.6k 24h
- Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1.9¢ YES · $21.8k 24h
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?23.4¢ YES · $35.3k 24h
- Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $48.7k 24h
- Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1.4¢ YES · $27.0k 24h
- Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $21.8k 24h
- Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $19.5k 24h
- Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $19.9k 24h
- Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.3¢ YES · $50.5k 24h
- ★ Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?37.6¢ YES · $55.9k 24h
- Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $17.9k 24h
- Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $47.4k 24h
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?9.6¢ YES · $53.2k 24h
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?5.0¢ YES · $27.4k 24h
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?7.1¢ YES · $27.4k 24h
- Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $23.5k 24h
- Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $17.7k 24h
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $37.1k 24h
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?23.4¢ YES · $70.2k 24h
- Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.6¢ YES · $61.0k 24h
- Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $46.1k 24h
- Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $28.0k 24h
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $24.4k 24h
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.9¢ YES · $85.8k 24h
- Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?4.3¢ YES · $35.3k 24h
- Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $22.3k 24h
- Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $45.2k 24h
- Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.6¢ YES · $22.8k 24h
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2.6¢ YES · $36.8k 24h
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1.3¢ YES · $48.8k 24h
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $21.9k 24h
- Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?6.6¢ YES · $28.7k 24h
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1.3¢ YES · $36.9k 24h
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $18.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.121 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.830 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.544 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.163 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.874 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.874 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.874 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.874 | 168 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination · fresh · feed 7s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
25.67%
max drawdown
3.34%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.56%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.49%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.34%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1048
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →