TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “nomination · 2028 · president” (28 markets)
Top terms: nomination2028presidentpoliticsdemocraticwin
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $27.8k 24h
- Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $99.0k 24h
- Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $46.6k 24h
- Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2.4¢ YES · $36.2k 24h
- Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $29.1k 24h
- Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $30.7k 24h
- Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $30.1k 24h
- Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $27.2k 24h
- Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1.4¢ YES · $196.0k 24h
- Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $32.5k 24h
- Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $36.7k 24h
- Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $28.5k 24h
- Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $668.1k 24h
- Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $28.4k 24h
- Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.9¢ YES · $28.2k 24h
- Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $37.1k 24h
- ★ Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $28.3k 24h
- Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $29.5k 24h
- Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $41.0k 24h
- Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $34.4k 24h
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.9¢ YES · $51.6k 24h
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.7¢ YES · $388.7k 24h
- Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $29.6k 24h
- Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.7¢ YES · $41.5k 24h
- Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $30.1k 24h
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2.9¢ YES · $29.0k 24h
- Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1.1¢ YES · $119.2k 24h
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.8¢ YES · $36.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.386 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-lebron-james-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination · fresh · feed 0s oldrealized vol (ann.)
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max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
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RMS drawdown
pain index
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mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
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ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
- insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-lebron-james-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →