TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “2028 · election · us” (15 markets)
Top terms: 2028electionuspresidentpoliticswin
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?5.7¢ YES · $39.1k 24h
- Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $35.0k 24h
- Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $141.7k 24h
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $29.6k 24h
- Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.9¢ YES · $36.5k 24h
- Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $35.2k 24h
- ★ Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $49.7k 24h
- Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $135.4k 24h
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $46.5k 24h
- Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $33.4k 24h
- Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.9¢ YES · $36.5k 24h
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $45.8k 24h
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.7¢ YES · $463.4k 24h
- Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $34.2k 24h
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.8¢ YES · $42.8k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.117 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -16.588 | 52 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-lebron-james-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election · fresh · feed 0s oldrealized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
- insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-lebron-james-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →