TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “french · 2027 · election” (17 markets)
Top terms: french2027electionpresidentpoliticswin
- Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $42.3k 24h
- Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $32.6k 24h
- Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $36.3k 24h
- Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $39.9k 24h
- Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $42.3k 24h
- Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $41.1k 24h
- Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $37.1k 24h
- Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $45.7k 24h
- Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $52.4k 24h
- Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $35.3k 24h
- ★ Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?0.8¢ YES · $27.6k 24h
- Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $43.0k 24h
- Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $28.4k 24h
- Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $51.4k 24h
- Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $42.2k 24h
- Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $41.4k 24h
- Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $26.9k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.844 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.844 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.844 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.844 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.844 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.844 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.844 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.844 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-michel-barnier-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
154
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-michel-barnier-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →