TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “norway · iraq · markets” (8 markets)

Top terms: norwayiraqmarketswinspreadfifa

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5-3.007111no rejection · independent
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5-2.954111no rejection · independent
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5-2.941111no rejection · independent
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5-2.651169no rejection · independent
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?-2.404169no rejection · independent
Spread: Norway (-1.5)-2.380169no rejection · independent
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5-2.259169no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-norway-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-893 · fresh · feed 15s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
2.96%
max drawdown
3.92%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.16%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.55%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.92%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-norway-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-893/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →