KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · CRYPTO

Bitcoin price on Jun 14, 2026?

YES · live
37.0¢
NO · live
61.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxbtcd-26jun1417-t64249.99 · fresh · feed 47s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
817.08%
max drawdown
61.33%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
23.23%
RMS drawdown
pain index
16.23%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
2.11%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
57.06%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.88
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.88
upside/downside
roll spread
116.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
495
store
spread
259.7 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1417-t64249.99/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING47.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
37.0¢
NO · live
61.5¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 37.6%NO 62.4%NO62.4%61.50¢ · odds 1/1.63
Σ 98.50% · moderate
Σ-sides total = 98.50% (1.50pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.955 / 1.00 bits (95%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
37.6%37.0¢2.70×▬ +0.00pp
NO
62.4%61.5¢1.63×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 98.50% · arb gap 1.50pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
47.2s
·ticker
KXBTCD-26JUN1417-T64249.99
▲YES bid
38.00¢
▲YES ask
39.00¢
ΣΣ sides
98.50%
⚖arb gap
1.500pp
$24h vol $
$61.5k
◐open interest $
$62.4k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXBTCD-26JUN1417-T64249.99
Event ticker
KXBTCD-26JUN1417
YES bid / ask
38.00¢ / 39.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask
61.00¢ / 62.00¢
Last YES
37.00¢
Σ-sides
98.50% (arb gap 1.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$61.45k
Volume total
$61.45k
Open interest
$62.43k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2026-06-14T21:00:00Z · 0.2d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 64249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (495 bars · effective 350484 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 1.381pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.38ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2331 · n = 495✓ n = 495
μ per bar
-0.051pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.381pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
6.76pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
3.38pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.2331
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
37.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 2.32pp · ES₉₅ 2.90pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.051pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.08✓ n = 495
VaR 95%
2.32pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
2.90pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
61.3pp
peak 75.0¢ → trough 29.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
37.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.703
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+170
$100 wins $170
FractionalUK
1.70 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$170.27
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 37.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.951 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.951 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.43 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.67 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:11:37 UTC
Snapshot age
47.2s
SHA-256 attestation
f3f40fd4f329d71807ddc08fe41da52db5b54c80b0a2f8a08a0a2202d949791c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 495 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.5K
Realized vol (annualised)
1741.19%
σ per bar = 0.029411
Mean return (annualised)
-36624.64%
μ per bar = -0.001045
Sharpe (rf=0)
-21.03
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
61.33%
peak 0.75 → trough 0.29 over 113 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1417-t64249.99/risk · same metrics, JSON