KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will the Argentina win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

YES · live
8.8¢
NO · live
91.1¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmenworldcup-26-ar · fresh · feed 59s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
20.68%
max drawdown
1.12%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.40%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.15%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.12%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
41.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
510
store
spread
113.0 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-ar/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING59.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
8.8¢
NO · live
91.1¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 8.8%NO 91.2%NO91.2%91.15¢ · odds 1/1.10
Σ 99.95% · fair
Σ-sides total = 99.95% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.430 / 1.00 bits (43%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
8.8%8.8¢11.36×▬ +0.00pp
NO
91.2%91.1¢1.10×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 99.95% · arb gap 0.05pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
59.3s
·ticker
KXMENWORLDCUP-26-AR
▲YES bid
8.80¢
▲YES ask
8.90¢
ΣΣ sides
99.95%
⚖arb gap
0.050pp
$24h vol $
$33.6k
◐open interest $
$6.5M
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXMENWORLDCUP-26-AR
Event ticker
KXMENWORLDCUP-26
YES bid / ask
8.80¢ / 8.90¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask
91.10¢ / 91.20¢
Last YES
8.80¢
Σ-sides
99.95% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$33.58k
Volume total
$635.56k
Open interest
$6.53M
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2028-07-18T14:00:00Z · 765.2d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Argentina wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (510 bars · effective 350788 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 765.2 d · σ/bar 0.035pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 4.73ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0803 · n = 510✓ n = 510
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.035pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.17pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move765d
4.73pp
σ × √18364.243343333335
Terminal variancebinary
0.0803
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
8.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.06pp · ES₉₅ 0.07pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 510
VaR 95%
0.06pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.07pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.1pp
peak 8.9¢ → trough 8.8¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
8.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
11.364
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1036
$100 wins $1036
FractionalUK
10.36 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1036.36
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 8.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.430 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.430 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.51 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.13 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 09:44:24 UTC
Snapshot age
59.3s
SHA-256 attestation
0b81ebad68cf1a7dd3231bdc736ba46c5d45215ba8560950dd5d75d5105d0525 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 510 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K
Realized vol (annualised)
233.80%
σ per bar = 0.003948
Mean return (annualised)
0.00%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.12%
peak 0.09 → trough 0.09 over 1 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-ar/risk · same metrics, JSON