KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

YES · live

0.4¢

NO · live

99.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmenworldcup-26-civ · fresh · feed 11s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

4.54%

max drawdown

33.33%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

3.90%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.46%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.46%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

2.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

2.00

upside/downside

roll spread

12.5 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

511

store

spread

2857.1 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-civ/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING11.2s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

0.4¢

NO · live

99.6¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.05% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.05% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.038 / 1.00 bits (4%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

0.4%0.4¢250.00×▬ +0.00pp

99.6%99.6¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.05% · arb gap 0.05pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

11.2s

·ticker

KXMENWORLDCUP-26-CIV

▲YES bid

0.30¢

▲YES ask

0.40¢

ΣΣ sides

100.05%

⚖arb gap

0.050pp

$24h vol $

$4.7k

◐open interest $

$5.9M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMENWORLDCUP-26-CIV
Event ticker: KXMENWORLDCUP-26
YES bid / ask: 0.30¢ / 0.40¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask: 99.60¢ / 99.70¢
Last YES: 0.40¢
Σ-sides: 100.05% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $4.71k
Volume total: $24.69k
Open interest: $5.93M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-07-18T14:00:00Z · 765.2d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Ivory Coast wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (511 bars · effective 350784 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 765.2 d · σ/bar 0.008pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.04ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0040 · n = 511✓ n = 511

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.008pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.04pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move765d

1.04pp

σ × √18364.229752777777

Terminal variancebinary

0.0040

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

0.4¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 511

VaR 95%

0.01pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.02pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

33.3pp

peak 0.3¢ → trough 0.2¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

0.4%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

250.000

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+24900

$100 wins $24900

FractionalUK

249.00 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$24900.00

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.038 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.038 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

7.97 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.01 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 09:46:01 UTC
Snapshot age: 11.2s
SHA-256 attestation: 4f007128c81cef63fdb18a5fdfd46227550fe5d41f3b8a5e9f4f103ce18abb32 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 511 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

1683.82%

σ per bar = 0.028430

Mean return (annualised)

19787.12%

μ per bar = 0.000564

Sharpe (rf=0)

11.75

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

33.33%

peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 312 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-civ/risk · same metrics, JSON