KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will the Japan win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

YES · live

1.4¢

NO · live

98.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmenworldcup-26-jp · fresh · feed 58s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

25.33%

max drawdown

41.18%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

16.36%

RMS drawdown

pain index

13.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.06%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

24.31%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.89

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.89

upside/downside

roll spread

190.1 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

510

store

spread

740.7 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-jp/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING58.3s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

1.4¢

NO · live

98.6¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.05% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.05% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.106 / 1.00 bits (11%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

1.4%1.4¢71.43×▬ +0.00pp

98.6%98.6¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.05% · arb gap 0.05pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

58.3s

·ticker

KXMENWORLDCUP-26-JP

▲YES bid

1.30¢

▲YES ask

1.40¢

ΣΣ sides

100.05%

⚖arb gap

0.050pp

$24h vol $

$18.5k

◐open interest $

$6.5M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMENWORLDCUP-26-JP
Event ticker: KXMENWORLDCUP-26
YES bid / ask: 1.30¢ / 1.40¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask: 98.60¢ / 98.70¢
Last YES: 1.40¢
Σ-sides: 100.05% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $18.55k
Volume total: $98.55k
Open interest: $6.55M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-07-18T14:00:00Z · 765.2d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Japan wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (510 bars · effective 350788 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 765.2 d · σ/bar 0.043pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 5.80ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0138 · n = 510✓ n = 510

μ per bar

-0.001pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.043pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.21pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move765d

5.80pp

σ × √18364.243621388887

Terminal variancebinary

0.0138

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

1.4¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.07pp · ES₉₅ 0.09pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 510

VaR 95%

0.07pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.09pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

41.2pp

peak 1.7¢ → trough 1.0¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

1.4%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

71.429

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+7043

$100 wins $7043

FractionalUK

70.43 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$7042.86

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.106 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.106 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

6.16 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.02 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 09:44:24 UTC
Snapshot age: 58.3s
SHA-256 attestation: 53211f4de1c190d8a8f78a90ee8fb0763393c25f5b2c0e96969221b871039476 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 510 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

1924.84%

σ per bar = 0.032499

Mean return (annualised)

-13380.67%

μ per bar = -0.000381

Sharpe (rf=0)

-6.95

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

41.18%

peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 191 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-jp/risk · same metrics, JSON