KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will the Portugal win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

YES · live

12.5¢

NO · live

87.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmenworldcup-26-pt · fresh · feed 57s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

172.89%

max drawdown

18.80%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

4.74%

RMS drawdown

pain index

3.27%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.43%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

12.40%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.05

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.05

upside/downside

roll spread

286.3 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

510

store

spread

80.3 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-pt/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING57.3s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

12.5¢

NO · live

87.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.05% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.05% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.543 / 1.00 bits (54%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

12.5%12.5¢8.00×▬ +0.00pp

87.5%87.5¢1.14×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.05% · arb gap 0.05pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

57.3s

·ticker

KXMENWORLDCUP-26-PT

▲YES bid

12.40¢

▲YES ask

12.50¢

ΣΣ sides

100.05%

⚖arb gap

0.050pp

$24h vol $

$188.8k

◐open interest $

$12.2M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMENWORLDCUP-26-PT
Event ticker: KXMENWORLDCUP-26
YES bid / ask: 12.40¢ / 12.50¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask: 87.50¢ / 87.60¢
Last YES: 12.50¢
Σ-sides: 100.05% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $188.85k
Volume total: $1.80M
Open interest: $12.19M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-07-18T14:00:00Z · 765.2d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Portugal wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (510 bars · effective 350788 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 765.2 d · σ/bar 0.292pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 39.57ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1094 · n = 510✓ n = 510

μ per bar

+0.003pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.292pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.43pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move765d

39.57pp

σ × √18364.24389361111

Terminal variancebinary

0.1094

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

12.5¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.48pp · ES₉₅ 0.60pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.05✓ n = 510

VaR 95%

0.48pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.60pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

18.8pp

peak 13.3¢ → trough 10.8¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

12.5%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

8.000

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+700

$100 wins $700

FractionalUK

7.00 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$700.00

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.544 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.544 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.00 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.19 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 09:44:24 UTC
Snapshot age: 57.3s
SHA-256 attestation: 5956f92b3466a77f9403171c2bc24334948862d84795df69233e8fba2af33e94 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 510 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

1449.28%

σ per bar = 0.024470

Mean return (annualised)

9439.29%

μ per bar = 0.000269

Sharpe (rf=0)

6.51

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

18.80%

peak 0.13 → trough 0.11 over 7 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-pt/risk · same metrics, JSON