KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Arizona vs Cincinnati Winner?

YES · live

51.0¢

NO · live

49.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmlbgame-26jun141340azcin-az · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

56.30%

max drawdown

1.92%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

1.29%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.87%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

1.92%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

444

store

spread

198.0 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmlbgame-26jun141340azcin-az/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.3m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

51.0¢

NO · live

49.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

50.7%51.0¢1.96×▬ +0.00pp

49.3%49.5¢2.02×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.3m

·ticker

KXMLBGAME-26JUN141340AZCIN-AZ

▲YES bid

50.00¢

▲YES ask

51.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$146.1k

◐open interest $

$286.8k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMLBGAME-26JUN141340AZCIN-AZ
Event ticker: KXMLBGAME-26JUN141340AZCIN
YES bid / ask: 50.00¢ / 51.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 49.00¢ / 50.00¢
Last YES: 51.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $146.15k
Volume total: $146.56k
Open interest: $286.85k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-17T17:40:00Z · 3.1d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Arizona wins the Arizona vs Cincinnati professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026 at 1:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (444 bars · effective 350492 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 3.1 d · σ/bar 0.095pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.82ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2499 · n = 444✓ n = 444

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.095pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.47pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move3d

0.82pp

σ × √73.57553888888889

Terminal variancebinary

0.2499

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

51.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.16pp · ES₉₅ 0.20pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 444

VaR 95%

0.16pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.20pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

1.9pp

peak 52.0¢ → trough 51.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

51.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.961

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-104

risk $104 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.96 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$96.08

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

1.000 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

1.000 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.97 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

1.03 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:04:08 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.3m
SHA-256 attestation: 9d773ea298a41f06a8ca4c810359a48778d15514585958d13ffc2a3834e874cf · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 444 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.5K

Realized vol (annualised)

109.36%

σ per bar = 0.001847

Mean return (annualised)

-0.00%

μ per bar = -0.000000

Sharpe (rf=0)

-0.00

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

1.92%

peak 0.52 → trough 0.51 over 124 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmlbgame-26jun141340azcin-az/risk · same metrics, JSON