KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Billy Horschel win the RBC Canadian Open?

YES · live

2.2¢

NO · live

98.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpgatour-rbbcan26-bhor · fresh · feed 59s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

64.50%

max drawdown

51.72%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

30.49%

RMS drawdown

pain index

30.01%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.11%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

42.70%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.90

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.90

upside/downside

roll spread

415.4 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

510

store

spread

2564.1 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpgatour-rbbcan26-bhor/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING58.8s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

2.2¢

NO · live

98.0¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.25% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.25% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.152 / 1.00 bits (15%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

2.2%2.2¢45.45×▬ +0.00pp

97.8%98.0¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.25% · arb gap 0.25pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

58.8s

·ticker

KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26-BHOR

▲YES bid

1.70¢

▲YES ask

2.20¢

ΣΣ sides

100.25%

⚖arb gap

0.250pp

$24h vol $

$20.2k

◐open interest $

$1.2M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26-BHOR
Event ticker: KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26
YES bid / ask: 1.70¢ / 2.20¢ (spread 0.50pp)
NO bid / ask: 97.80¢ / 98.30¢
Last YES: 2.20¢
Σ-sides: 100.25% (arb gap 0.25pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $20.16k
Volume total: $31.04k
Open interest: $1.18M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-28T04:00:00Z · 13.8d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Billy Horschel wins the RBC Canadian Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (510 bars · effective 350788 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 13.8 d · σ/bar 0.109pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.98ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0215 · n = 510✓ n = 510

μ per bar

-0.001pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.109pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.53pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move14d

1.98pp

σ × √330.24348249999997

Terminal variancebinary

0.0215

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

2.2¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.18pp · ES₉₅ 0.23pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 510

VaR 95%

0.18pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.23pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

51.7pp

peak 2.9¢ → trough 1.4¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

2.2%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

45.455

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+4445

$100 wins $4445

FractionalUK

44.45 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$4445.45

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.153 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.153 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

5.51 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.03 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 09:44:24 UTC
Snapshot age: 58.8s
SHA-256 attestation: 7ed4c105ac4cd82a48f77d91c8b6289568ee96ca086ca41b1e4bd93ccdd5cce8 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 510 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K

Realized vol (annualised)

3377.70%

σ per bar = 0.057029

Mean return (annualised)

-19038.59%

μ per bar = -0.000543

Sharpe (rf=0)

-5.64

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

51.72%

peak 0.03 → trough 0.01 over 2 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpgatour-rbbcan26-bhor/risk · same metrics, JSON