KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Sam Burns win the RBC Canadian Open?

YES · live
7.4¢
NO · live
93.1¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpgatour-rbbcan26-sbur · fresh · feed 22s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
324.61%
max drawdown
60.87%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
33.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
32.10%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.74%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
48.82%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.04
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.04
upside/downside
roll spread
968.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
510
store
spread
1295.0 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpgatour-rbbcan26-sbur/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING22.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
7.4¢
NO · live
93.1¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 7.4%NO 92.6%NO92.6%93.05¢ · odds 1/1.07
Σ 100.45% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.45% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.379 / 1.00 bits (38%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
7.4%7.4¢13.51×▬ +0.00pp
NO
92.6%93.1¢1.07×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.45% · arb gap 0.45pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
22.4s
·ticker
KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26-SBUR
▲YES bid
6.50¢
▲YES ask
7.40¢
ΣΣ sides
100.45%
⚖arb gap
0.450pp
$24h vol $
$62.3k
◐open interest $
$1.8M
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26-SBUR
Event ticker
KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26
YES bid / ask
6.50¢ / 7.40¢ (spread 0.90pp)
NO bid / ask
92.60¢ / 93.50¢
Last YES
7.40¢
Σ-sides
100.45% (arb gap 0.45pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$62.28k
Volume total
$209.59k
Open interest
$1.81M
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2026-06-28T04:00:00Z · 13.8d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Sam Burns wins the RBC Canadian Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (510 bars · effective 350788 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 13.8 d · σ/bar 0.548pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 9.96ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0685 · n = 510✓ n = 510
μ per bar
+0.006pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.548pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.69pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move14d
9.96pp
σ × √330.25358
Terminal variancebinary
0.0685
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
7.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.90pp · ES₉₅ 1.13pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.006pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.08✓ n = 510
VaR 95%
0.90pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.13pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
60.9pp
peak 9.2¢ → trough 3.6¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
7.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
13.514
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1251
$100 wins $1251
FractionalUK
12.51 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1251.35
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 7.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.381 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.381 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.76 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.11 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 09:44:24 UTC
Snapshot age
22.4s
SHA-256 attestation
a0b791008656b5752f1493851955ca362d3fd8c97fb3fb009f2160e193ca27d9 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 510 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K
Realized vol (annualised)
5052.37%
σ per bar = 0.085305
Mean return (annualised)
32764.83%
μ per bar = 0.000934
Sharpe (rf=0)
6.49
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
60.87%
peak 0.09 → trough 0.04 over 16 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpgatour-rbbcan26-sbur/risk · same metrics, JSON