KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the RBC Canadian Open?

YES · live
16.0¢
NO · live
85.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpgatour-rbbcan26-tfle · fresh · feed 24s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
588.52%
max drawdown
40.91%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
31.17%
RMS drawdown
pain index
30.80%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
1.75%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
40.91%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
915.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
510
store
spread
1333.3 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpgatour-rbbcan26-tfle/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING23.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
16.0¢
NO · live
85.0¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 15.8%NO 84.2%NO84.2%85.00¢ · odds 1/1.18
Σ 101.00% · moderate
Σ-sides total = 101.00% (1.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.631 / 1.00 bits (63%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
15.8%16.0¢6.25×▬ +0.00pp
NO
84.2%85.0¢1.18×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 101.00% · arb gap 1.00pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
23.8s
·ticker
KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26-TFLE
▲YES bid
14.00¢
▲YES ask
16.00¢
ΣΣ sides
101.00%
⚖arb gap
1.000pp
$24h vol $
$122.1k
◐open interest $
$1.4M
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26-TFLE
Event ticker
KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26
YES bid / ask
14.00¢ / 16.00¢ (spread 2.00pp)
NO bid / ask
84.00¢ / 86.00¢
Last YES
16.00¢
Σ-sides
101.00% (arb gap 1.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$122.05k
Volume total
$337.66k
Open interest
$1.41M
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2026-06-28T04:00:00Z · 13.8d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Tommy Fleetwood wins the RBC Canadian Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (510 bars · effective 350788 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 13.8 d · σ/bar 0.994pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 18.06ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1344 · n = 510✓ n = 510
μ per bar
-0.012pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.994pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
4.87pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move14d
18.06pp
σ × √330.2531930555555
Terminal variancebinary
0.1344
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
16.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.65pp · ES₉₅ 2.06pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.012pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 510
VaR 95%
1.65pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
2.06pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
40.9pp
peak 22.0¢ → trough 13.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
16.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
6.250
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+525
$100 wins $525
FractionalUK
5.25 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$525.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 16.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.634 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.634 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.64 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.25 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 09:44:24 UTC
Snapshot age
23.8s
SHA-256 attestation
27cf716180849ecada072a4f03799d9377107aa984bc70a6c5aecff4762cf6ea · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 510 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.8K
Realized vol (annualised)
3908.45%
σ per bar = 0.065991
Mean return (annualised)
-21946.91%
μ per bar = -0.000626
Sharpe (rf=0)
-5.62
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
40.91%
peak 0.22 → trough 0.13 over 11 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpgatour-rbbcan26-tfle/risk · same metrics, JSON