KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will USA finish first in World Cup Group D?

YES · live

71.0¢

NO · live

29.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwcgroupwin-26d-usa · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 12.70%

realized vol (ann.)

349.24%

max drawdown

10.53%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

4.52%

RMS drawdown

pain index

3.78%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.57%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

7.97%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.09

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.09

upside/downside

roll spread

61.3 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

766

store

spread

141.8 bps

24h Δ

12.70%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change +12.70%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26d-usa/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.2m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

71.0¢

NO · live

29.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.873 / 1.00 bits (87%) · high uncertainty

YES

70.6%71.0¢1.41×▬ +0.00pp

29.4%29.5¢3.39×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.2m

·ticker

KXWCGROUPWIN-26D-USA

▲YES bid

70.00¢

▲YES ask

71.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$116.8k

◐open interest $

$557.5k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXWCGROUPWIN-26D-USA
Event ticker: KXWCGROUPWIN-26D
YES bid / ask: 70.00¢ / 71.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 29.00¢ / 30.00¢
Last YES: 71.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $116.76k
Volume total: $493.48k
Open interest: $557.53k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-07-11T14:00:00Z · 26.9d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If USA finish first in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (766 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 26.9 d · σ/bar 0.590pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 14.99ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2059 · n = 766✓ n = 766

μ per bar

+0.010pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.590pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

2.89pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move27d

14.99pp

σ × √645.884971388889

Terminal variancebinary

0.2059

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

71.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.96pp · ES₉₅ 1.21pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.010pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 766

VaR 95%

0.96pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

1.21pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

10.5pp

peak 76.0¢ → trough 68.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

71.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.408

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-245

risk $245 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.41 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$40.85

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.869 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.869 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.49 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

1.79 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:05:41 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.2m
SHA-256 attestation: fefecb591cb1adc49e540405a3ce3d0b7ed2cd82eda53816a2a3e9aed58d58ce · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 766 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

513.04%

σ per bar = 0.008664

Mean return (annualised)

5479.69%

μ per bar = 0.000156

Sharpe (rf=0)

10.68

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

10.53%

peak 0.76 → trough 0.68 over 42 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26d-usa/risk · same metrics, JSON