TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “ecuador · te · ivoire” (12 markets)

Top terms: ecuadorteivoiremarketsbothteams

Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score41.5¢ YES · $38.7k 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?29.5¢ YES · $2.55M 24h
★ Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?33.5¢ YES · $266.4k 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?37.5¢ YES · $600.0k 24h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?16.0¢ YES · $43.8k 24h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)15.5¢ YES · $39.9k 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.559.5¢ YES · $126.6k 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.530.5¢ YES · $67.3k 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?6.6¢ YES · $33.3k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score100.0¢ YES · $400.1k 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half100.0¢ YES · $32.1k 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score53.5¢ YES · $564.5k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	-4.813	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	-4.803	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	-4.798	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	-4.788	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	-4.786	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	-4.716	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	-4.687	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?	-4.680	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-draw · fresh · feed 1s old

realized vol (ann.)

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max drawdown

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sharpe

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ulcer index

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RMS drawdown

pain index

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mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

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Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

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ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

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cond. drawdown

gain/pain

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Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

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ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

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upside/downside

roll spread

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implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

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24h Δ

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flow lean

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carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-draw/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →