POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CÔTE D'IVOIRE VS. ECUADOR - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?

YES · live
16.0¢
NO · live
84.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-1 · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH18ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
16.0¢
NO · live
84.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1590 · σ=0.0222 · range [0.1050, 0.1850] · R²=0.699▲ RISING +57.14%σ HIGH 13.95%LAST 0.16500.18500.16500.14500.12500.1050μ = 0.1590max 0.1850min 0.1050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.70μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 16.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 16.0%NO 84.0%NO84.0%84.00¢ · odds 1/1.19
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.634 / 1.00 bits (63%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
16.0%16.0¢6.25×▬ +0.00pp
NO
84.0%84.0¢1.19×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,600 · μ=66.7 · σ=84.3 · CV=1.26BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=7088175263350μ = 6735050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1600bp moved · peak 350bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
18ms
▲YES mid
16.00¢ (16.00%)
▼NO mid
84.00¢ (84.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$43.8k
≋liquidity $
$18.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1590 · σ=0.0222 · range [0.1050, 0.1850] · R²=0.699▲ RISING +57.14%σ HIGH 13.95%LAST 0.16500.18500.16500.14500.12500.1050μ = 0.1590max 0.1850min 0.1050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.70μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 16.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8410 · σ=0.0222 · range [0.8150, 0.8950] · R²=0.699▼ FALLING -6.70%σ NORMAL 2.64%LAST 0.83500.89500.87500.85500.83500.8150μ = 0.8410max 0.8950min 0.8150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.70μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 83.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0020 · σ=0.0102 · skew=0.99 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.62 (leptokurtic (fat tails))975201-1.72ppbin -1.72pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -1.72pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak1-1.17ppbin -1.17pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -1.17pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak4-0.62ppbin -0.62pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -0.62pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak9-0.07ppbin -0.07pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -0.07pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak30.48ppbin 0.48pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin 0.48pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak41.03ppbin 1.03pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin 1.03pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak1.58pp12.13ppbin 2.13pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 2.13pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak2.68pp13.23ppbin 3.23pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 3.23pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.00 · kurt=2.60 · near 14 / mid 9 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.94)
μ MEAN15.90¢95% CI: [15.03¢, 16.77¢]
σ STD DEV2.22ppσ² = 4.917 · CV = 13.95%
med MEDIAN16.50¢Q₁ 15.50¢ · Q₃ 17.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 8.00pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→2.99pp)
min 10.50¢Q₁ 15.50¢med 16.50¢Q₃ 17.50¢max 18.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.940left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.395mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.27
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.50
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.61
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.140within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.083lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.856strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+7.312significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.856
H = 0.856STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.140k=2-0.083k=3-0.145k=4+0.147k=5+0.0220+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.31)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.85very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.31)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322454
SLUGfifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-1
CATEGORYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (84¢)
PRIMARY · YES16.00¢implied prob 16.00% · decimal odds 6.25×
COUNTER · NO84.00¢implied prob 84.00% · decimal odds 1.19×
16.00¢
84.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME43.75k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY18.38k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (84¢)|primary − counter| = 0.680 · entropy 0.634 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 16.0%NO 84.0%YES p̂16.0%H = 0.634 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES6.25×(16¢)NO1.19×(84¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.634 bits (63% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 23:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
57min
4.0 hours·θ = 10.863 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 16.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 84.0%)
current: $0.1600 · expected return per side: $0.84 on YES hit · $0.16 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.0hRESOLVESP projection · σ=2.22% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 10.863 pp/day
now3.96h left
10.863 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.97h left
12.543 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.98h left
15.362 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.99h left
21.726 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.40h left
34.351 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.50% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.67%MILD BULLISH +6.00%BEST+3.50%6hWORST-2.00%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.67%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+6.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.71% · Σ +5.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.25% · Σ +2.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -1.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +6.00%+8.00%0.00%2.00% · 1h2.00% · 1h2.00%1h1.00% · 2h1.00% · 2h1.00%2h-1.00% · 3h-1.00% · 3h-1.00%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h3.50% · 6h3.50% · 6h3.50%6h★ BEST-0.50% · 7h-0.50% · 7h-0.50%7h1.00% · 8h1.00% · 8h1.00%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h1.00% · 12h1.00% · 12h1.00%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.50% · 15h0.50% · 15h0.50%15h-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h0.50% · 17h0.50% · 17h0.50%17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-0.50% · 20h-0.50% · 20h-0.50%20h1.00% · 21h1.00% · 21h1.00%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-2.00% · 23h-2.00% · 23h-2.00%23h▼ WORST0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+5.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH38% up · 25% down · 38% flat
9 up bars · 6 down · best 3.50% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.667%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +6.04%FINAL+6.04%MAX DD-2.00%RECOVERYONGOING · 2 barsMAX RUN-UP+8.21%UNDERWATER10/25 (40%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0604 · peak 1.0821 · range [1.0000, 1.0821]1.08211.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0821UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.00% · moderate0%-2.00%▼ TROUGH -2.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 6 total#1 -2.00%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.00%bar 4-6 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.50%bar 12-12 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.00%)RECOVERYongoing · 2 barsTIME UNDER WATER40% of session · 10/25 bars
final equity 1.0604 (6.04%) · max DD -2.00% · time-under-water 10/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +17 / −2 (89% positive) · μ=27.38 · σ=19.75PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -23.70 (-2.59σ vs μ)52.7926.390.00-26.39-52.79μ = 27.3852.7952.7929.0229.0229.0229.0242.3942.3942.3942.3935.6835.6822.8322.8338.2138.2115.8715.8730.2130.2113.3413.3444.6244.6238.2138.2138.2138.2115.8715.8725.7625.7644.6244.62-15.10-15.10-23.70-23.70v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -23.697 · range [-23.70, 52.79] · μ 27.381 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=84.7037 · σ=45.1033 · range [38.2099, 152.1217] · R²=0.471▼ FALLING -39.25%σ EXTREME 53.25%LAST 92.4175152.1217123.643795.165866.687938.2099μ = 84.7037max 152.1217min 38.2099dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.47μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 92.42% · range [38.21%, 152.12%] · μ 84.70% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.356 · σ=0.150MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.192 (+1.09σ vs μ)0.5330.2670.000-0.267-0.533μ = -0.3560.0120.012-0.327-0.327-0.308-0.308-0.495-0.495-0.495-0.495-0.246-0.246-0.476-0.476-0.367-0.367-0.454-0.454-0.458-0.458-0.516-0.516-0.409-0.409-0.433-0.433-0.533-0.533-0.247-0.247-0.333-0.333-0.409-0.409-0.083-0.083-0.192-0.192v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.192 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
17.0010
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0002
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.0386
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8450
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.7567
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0678
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1281
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0333
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7682
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0085
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2974
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1945
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.605 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.13e-4 · top T=4.00h (20.1%) · top-3 cover 50.4%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.7e-42.0e-41.4e-46.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.93e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.93e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.24e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.24e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.51e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.51e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.53e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.53e-4 · 11.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.99e-4 · 14.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.99e-4 · 14.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.71e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.71e-4 · 20.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.44e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.44e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.22e-4 · 9.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.22e-4 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.07e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.07e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.43e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.43e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.10e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.10e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-4 · 11.1% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 20.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.350e-3

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 1.053pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.58ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1378 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
+0.250pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.053pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
5.16pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
2.58pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.1378
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
16.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.48pp · ES₉₅ 1.92pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.250pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.40⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
1.48pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.92pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
10.8pp
peak 18.5¢ → trough 16.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
16.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
6.250
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+525
$100 wins $525
FractionalUK
5.25 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$525.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 16.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.634 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.634 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.64 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.25 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
19265467569714540906109545284351322022959511320204054312967584211963335101104
NO token ID
98885987653447499360283662085563766727900078862268746510358557161726362841315
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:02:10 UTC
Snapshot age
18ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:02:10 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e6be2be4a6ce29b1176944db7daa1bb782c51a1a144b4d153c6d6d92aa5bf478 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,791.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,661.65HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.24

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.165000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
606.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.589
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.452
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-1/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1872241346.93bp0.1900003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2655616094.61bp0.90000035FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.50426220561.33bp0.99000042PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.149997909.29bp0.1400003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1163222950.18bp0.0100009PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.1163222950.18bp0.0100009PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.073573
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = 0.018833
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
10.81%
peak 0.18 → trough 0.17 over 2 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-1/risk · same metrics, JSON