TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Spread: Spain (-1.5)
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “spain · cabo · verde” (18 markets)
Top terms: spaincaboverdemarketsspreadscore
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score33.5¢ YES · $63.2k 24h
- Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?2.5¢ YES · $950.9k 24h
- Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?6.3¢ YES · $305.7k 24h
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?91.5¢ YES · $2.25M 24h
- Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?8.5¢ YES · $33.9k 24h
- Spain leading at halftime?75.5¢ YES · $104.6k 24h
- ★ Spread: Spain (-1.5)76.5¢ YES · $301.2k 24h
- Spread: Spain (-2.5)54.5¢ YES · $1.55M 24h
- Spread: Spain (-3.5)33.5¢ YES · $193.6k 24h
- Spread: Spain (-4.5)18.5¢ YES · $25.4k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.533.5¢ YES · $68.4k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.541.0¢ YES · $24.7k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.598.0¢ YES · $35.3k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.589.5¢ YES · $83.5k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.571.5¢ YES · $95.1k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.548.5¢ YES · $1.60M 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.530.5¢ YES · $93.2k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.516.5¢ YES · $94.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.066 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.663 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.649 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.315 | 105 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.310 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.960 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.759 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.537 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-spread-home-1pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
57.79%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
0.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1573
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-spread-home-1pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →