POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPAIN VS. CABO VERDE

Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?

YES · live
7.4¢
NO · live
92.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-draw · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
11.71%
max drawdown
1.44%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.48%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.87%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
3.40
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
3.40
upside/downside
roll spread
0.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1979
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-draw/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
7.4¢
NO · live
92.6¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0683 · σ=0.0019 · range [0.0660, 0.0735] · R²=0.734▲ RISING +11.36%σ NORMAL 2.82%LAST 0.07350.07350.07160.06980.06790.0660μ = 0.0683max 0.0735min 0.0660dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 7.35¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 7.4%NO 92.6%NO92.6%92.60¢ · odds 1/1.08
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.381 / 1.00 bits (38%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
7.4%7.4¢13.51×▬ +0.00pp
NO
92.6%92.6¢1.08×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=105 · μ=4.4 · σ=8.6 · CV=1.97BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=19010203040μ = 44050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 105bp moved · peak 40bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2ms
▲YES mid
7.40¢ (7.40%)
▼NO mid
92.60¢ (92.60%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$45.7k
≋liquidity $
$670.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0683 · σ=0.0019 · range [0.0660, 0.0735] · R²=0.734▲ RISING +11.36%σ NORMAL 2.82%LAST 0.07350.07350.07160.06980.06790.0660μ = 0.0683max 0.0735min 0.0660dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 7.35¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9317 · σ=0.0019 · range [0.9265, 0.9340] · R²=0.734▼ FALLING -0.80%σ LOW 0.21%LAST 0.92650.93400.93210.93030.92840.9265μ = 0.9317max 0.9340min 0.9265dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 92.65¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0008 · skew=2.89 (right-skewed) · kurt=9.03 (leptokurtic (fat tails))14117403-0.03ppbin -0.03pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakbin -0.03pp · n=3 · 21.4% peak140.02ppbin 0.02pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin 0.02pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak30.06ppbin 0.06pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakbin 0.06pp · n=3 · 21.4% peak20.11ppbin 0.11pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin 0.11pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak10.15ppbin 0.15pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 0.15pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak0.20pp0.24pp0.29pp0.33pp10.38ppbin 0.38pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 0.38pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.89 · kurt=9.03 · near 8 / mid 14 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.80 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.06σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.31)
μ MEAN6.83¢95% CI: [6.75¢, 6.90¢]
σ STD DEV0.19ppσ² = 0.037 · CV = 2.82%
med MEDIAN6.80¢Q₁ 6.75¢ · Q₃ 6.85¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.75pp · IQR 0.10pp (1.349σ→0.26pp)
min 6.60¢Q₁ 6.75¢med 6.80¢Q₃ 6.85¢max 7.35¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.309right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.785leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.13
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.60
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.89
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.190within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.050lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.593persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+7.965significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.593
H = 0.593PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.190k=2+0.050k=3-0.162k=4+0.189k=5-0.0570+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.97)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.38high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.97)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1897071
SLUGfifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-draw
CATEGORYSpain vs. Cabo Verde
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (93¢)
PRIMARY · YES7.40¢implied prob 7.40% · decimal odds 13.51×
COUNTER · NO92.60¢implied prob 92.60% · decimal odds 1.08×
7.40¢
92.60¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME45.67k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY670.21k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (93¢)|primary − counter| = 0.852 · entropy 0.381 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 7.4%NO 92.6%YES p̂7.4%H = 0.381 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES13.51×(7¢)NO1.08×(93¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.381 bits (38% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-15 16:00 UTC
0days
23hrs
52min
23.9 hours·θ = 0.944 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 7.4%)
NO →$0.00(P = 92.6%)
current: $0.0740 · expected return per side: $0.93 on YES hit · $0.07 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+11.9hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.19% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.944 pp/day
now23.87h left
0.944 pp/day×1.00
−25%17.90h left
1.090 pp/day×1.15
−50%11.94h left
1.335 pp/day×1.41
−75%5.97h left
1.887 pp/day×2.00
−90%2.39h left
2.984 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.40% · worst -0.05% · typical |Δ| 0.04%MILD BULLISH +0.75%BEST+0.40%23hWORST-0.05%11hTYPICAL |Δ|0.04%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.75%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.15%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.75%+0.75%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.15% · 5h0.15% · 5h0.15%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.05% · 9h0.05% · 9h0.05%9h0.05% · 10h0.05% · 10h0.05%10h-0.05% · 11h-0.05% · 11h-0.05%11h▼ WORST0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-0.05% · 14h-0.05% · 14h-0.05%14h0.10% · 15h0.10% · 15h0.10%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.10% · 19h0.10% · 19h0.10%19h-0.05% · 20h-0.05% · 20h-0.05%20h0.05% · 21h0.05% · 21h0.05%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.40% · 23h0.40% · 23h0.40%23h★ BEST0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH29% up · 13% down · 58% flat
7 up bars · 3 down · best 0.40% · worst -0.05% · typical |Δ| 0.044%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.75%FINAL+0.75%MAX DD-0.10%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+0.75%UNDERWATER11/25 (44%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0075 · peak 1.0075 · range [1.0000, 1.0075]1.00751.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0075UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.10% · shallow0%-0.10%▼ TROUGH -0.10%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.10%bar 12-19 · 8 bars · recovered#2 -0.05%bar 21-23 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.10%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER44% of session · 11/25 bars
final equity 1.0075 (0.75%) · max DD -0.10% · time-under-water 11/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +17 / −0 (89% positive) · μ=30.13 · σ=17.50PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 47.76 (+1.01σ vs μ)66.7233.360.00-33.36-66.72μ = 30.1338.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2151.5251.5266.7266.7220.7220.7220.7220.7220.7220.720.000.0013.3413.340.000.0015.8715.8715.8715.8738.2138.2138.2138.2130.2130.2130.2130.2147.7647.7647.7647.76v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 47.762 · range [0.00, 66.72] · μ 30.130 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=6.0307 · σ=3.3541 · range [3.5228, 15.2840] · R²=0.243▲ RISING +166.67%σ EXTREME 55.62%LAST 15.284015.284012.34379.40346.46313.5228μ = 6.0307max 15.2840min 3.5228dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 15.28% · range [3.52%, 15.28%] · μ 6.03% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −18 (0% positive) · μ=-0.303 · σ=0.196MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.358 (-0.28σ vs μ)0.7080.3540.000-0.354-0.708μ = -0.303-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.333-0.333-0.077-0.077-0.127-0.127-0.069-0.069-0.069-0.0690.0000.000-0.394-0.394-0.333-0.333-0.454-0.454-0.454-0.454-0.433-0.433-0.433-0.433-0.646-0.646-0.708-0.708-0.171-0.171-0.358-0.358v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.358 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
171.2463
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.0526
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6945
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.2657
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1637
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8700
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7944
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0074
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2342
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2171
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.624 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.34e-7 · top T=2.00h (26.9%) · top-3 cover 50.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.0e-62.3e-61.5e-67.5e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.88e-7 · 6.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.88e-7 · 6.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.08e-7 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.08e-7 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.24e-7 · 6.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.24e-7 · 6.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.01e-6 · 9.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.01e-6 · 9.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.17e-6 · 10.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.17e-6 · 10.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.85e-7 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.85e-7 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.39e-6 · 12.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.39e-6 · 12.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.19e-7 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.19e-7 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.25e-6 · 11.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.25e-6 · 11.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.32e-8 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.32e-8 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.08e-6 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.08e-6 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.01e-6 · 26.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.01e-6 · 26.9% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 26.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.121e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1979 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 1.0 d · σ/bar 0.009pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.04ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0685 · n = 1979✓ n = 1979
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.009pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.04pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move1d
0.04pp
σ × √23.871701666666667
Terminal variancebinary
0.0685
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
7.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1979
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.4pp
peak 7.0¢ → trough 6.9¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
7.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
13.514
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1251
$100 wins $1251
FractionalUK
12.51 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1251.35
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 7.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.381 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.381 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.76 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.11 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
83072215710101175871081563765894926731657038656927257285040774204247563097609
NO token ID
73473441294695490078665625988041105196042883387447724791485322875037171038163
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:07:41 UTC
Snapshot age
2ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:07:41 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c26e1fdf8029a332395ba2f8c0230a71aeb9e5c4606367c9b887c3499d647459 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,017.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.15HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.35

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Spain vs. Cabo Verde

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.073500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
408.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.160
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.673
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-draw/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.078390665.29bp0.0800006FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0859551694.50bp0.10000018FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.20258117562.05bp0.90000069FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.068794640.32bp0.0680005FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0485753391.15bp0.02000041FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0283056148.92bp0.00100048PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,979 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
165.75%
σ per bar = 0.001252
Mean return (annualised)
7493.91%
μ per bar = 0.000043
Sharpe (rf=0)
45.21
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.44%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.07 over 50 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-draw/risk · same metrics, JSON