TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Spread: Spain (-2.5)
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “spain · cabo · verde” (5 markets)
Top terms: spaincaboverde0615markets
- Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?3.4¢ YES · $121.0k 24h
- Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?7.4¢ YES · $53.6k 24h
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?89.5¢ YES · $228.9k 24h
- ★ Spread: Spain (-2.5)50.5¢ YES · $42.1k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.549.5¢ YES · $116.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (4 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.627 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.174 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.959 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.871 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-spread-home-2pt5 · fresh · feed 0s oldrealized vol (ann.)
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max drawdown
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sharpe
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ulcer index
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RMS drawdown
pain index
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mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
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Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
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ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
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cond. drawdown
gain/pain
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Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
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ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
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upside/downside
roll spread
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implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
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24h Δ
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flow lean
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carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
- insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-spread-home-2pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →