TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “spain · cabo · verde” (14 markets)
Top terms: spaincaboverdemarketsspreadboth
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score33.5¢ YES · $26.2k 24h
- Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?2.8¢ YES · $464.8k 24h
- Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?6.6¢ YES · $231.3k 24h
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?91.5¢ YES · $1.98M 24h
- Spain leading at halftime?72.5¢ YES · $31.9k 24h
- Spread: Spain (-1.5)74.5¢ YES · $185.1k 24h
- Spread: Spain (-2.5)53.5¢ YES · $275.5k 24h
- Spread: Spain (-3.5)32.5¢ YES · $74.0k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.534.5¢ YES · $31.8k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.588.5¢ YES · $26.3k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.571.5¢ YES · $37.0k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.547.5¢ YES · $556.7k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.529.5¢ YES · $24.8k 24h
- ★ Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score99.5¢ YES · $254.2k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.395 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.941 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.870 | 103 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.766 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.223 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.191 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| 0.084 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| 0.148 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-swe-tun-2026-06-14-btts · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
2311.34%
max drawdown
18.55%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.67%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.88%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
18.55%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
4.12
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
4.12
upside/downside
roll spread
21.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
903
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-swe-tun-2026-06-14-btts/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →