TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “australia · bangladesh · icc” (4 markets)
Top terms: australiabangladeshicct20womencup
- ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia63.0¢ YES · $312.1k 24h
- ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands76.5¢ YES · $86.1k 24h
- ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan91.5¢ YES · $41.2k 24h
- ★ Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4¢ YES · $7.36M 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (3 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.005 | 68 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| 0.104 | 68 | no rejection · independent | |
| 0.560 | 68 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-australia-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-816 · fresh · feed 2s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
4.19%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
7.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-australia-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-816/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →