POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · ODI SERIES BANGLADESH VS AUSTRALIA: BANGLADESH VS AUSTRALIA

ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia

YES · live
71.0¢
NO · live
29.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · crint-bgd2-aus3-2026-06-14 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
1228.16%
max drawdown
34.34%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
11.89%
RMS drawdown
pain index
7.58%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
30.05%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.70
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.70
upside/downside
roll spread
10.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1118
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-crint-bgd2-aus3-2026-06-14/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH149ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
71.0¢
NO · live
29.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.4922 · σ=0.0708 · range [0.4400, 0.6800] · R²=0.380▲ RISING +26.88%σ HIGH 14.38%LAST 0.59000.68000.62000.56000.50000.4400μ = 0.4922max 0.6800min 0.4400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 59.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 71.0%NO 29.0%YES71.0%71.00¢ · odds 1/1.41
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.869 / 1.00 bits (87%) · high uncertainty
YES
71.0%71.0¢1.41×▬ +0.00pp
NO
29.0%29.0¢3.45×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=4,350 · μ=181.3 · σ=322.3 · CV=1.78BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2003136259381,250μ = 1811,25050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 4350bp moved · peak 1250bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
149ms
▲YES mid
71.00¢ (71.00%)
▼NO mid
29.00¢ (29.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$308.7k
≋liquidity $
$14.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4922 · σ=0.0708 · range [0.4400, 0.6800] · R²=0.380▲ RISING +26.88%σ HIGH 14.38%LAST 0.59000.68000.62000.56000.50000.4400μ = 0.4922max 0.6800min 0.4400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 59.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5078 · σ=0.0708 · range [0.3200, 0.5600] · R²=0.380▼ FALLING -23.36%σ HIGH 13.94%LAST 0.41000.56000.50000.44000.38000.3200μ = 0.5078max 0.5600min 0.3200dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 41.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0058 · σ=0.0351 · skew=1.59 (right-skewed) · kurt=3.39 (leptokurtic (fat tails))16128401-6.50ppbin -6.50pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -6.50pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak-4.50pp1-2.50ppbin -2.50pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -2.50pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak16-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=16 · 100.0% peakbin -0.50pp · n=16 · 100.0% peak21.50ppbin 1.50pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin 1.50pp · n=2 · 12.5% peak23.50ppbin 3.50pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin 3.50pp · n=2 · 12.5% peak5.50pp7.50pp19.50ppbin 9.50pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 9.50pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak111.50ppbin 11.50pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 11.50pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.50 · kurt=4.20 · near 7 / mid 16 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.87 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.69)
μ MEAN49.22¢95% CI: [46.45¢, 51.99¢]
σ STD DEV7.08ppσ² = 50.106 · CV = 14.38%
med MEDIAN46.50¢Q₁ 45.00¢ · Q₃ 47.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 24.00pp · IQR 2.50pp (1.349σ→9.55pp)
min 44.00¢Q₁ 45.00¢med 46.50¢Q₃ 47.50¢max 68.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.686right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.452leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.38
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 3.82
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.39
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.427positive · momentum
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.265lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.872strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.757significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.872
H = 0.872STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★+0.427k=2-0.265k=3-0.328k=4-0.230k=5-0.1590+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.76)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.76)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2506832
SLUGcrint-bgd2-aus3-2026-06-14
CATEGORYODI Series Bangl…vs Australia
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (71¢)
PRIMARY · YES71.00¢implied prob 71.00% · decimal odds 1.41×
COUNTER · NO29.00¢implied prob 29.00% · decimal odds 3.45×
71.00¢
29.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME308.70k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY14.22k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (71¢)|primary − counter| = 0.420 · entropy 0.869 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 71.0%NO 29.0%YES p̂71.0%H = 0.869 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.41×(71¢)NO3.45×(29¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.869 bits (87% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-21 01:00 UTC
6days
13hrs
54min
6.58 days·θ = 34.678 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 71.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 29.0%)
current: $0.7100 · expected return per side: $0.29 on YES hit · $0.71 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+3.3dRESOLVESP projection · σ=7.08% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 34.678 pp/day
now6.58d left
34.678 pp/day×1.00
−25%4.93d left
40.042 pp/day×1.15
−50%3.29d left
49.042 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.64d left
69.355 pp/day×2.00
−90%15.79h left
109.660 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 12.50% · worst -7.50% · typical |Δ| 1.81%MILD BULLISH +12.50%BEST+12.50%21hWORST-7.50%23hTYPICAL |Δ|1.81%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+12.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.63% · Σ +13.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +12.50%+21.50%-2.50%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-0.50% · 7h-0.50% · 7h-0.50%7h0.50% · 8h0.50% · 8h0.50%8h-1.00% · 9h-1.00% · 9h-1.00%9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h3.50% · 14h3.50% · 14h3.50%14h-1.00% · 15h-1.00% · 15h-1.00%15h-3.00% · 16h-3.00% · 16h-3.00%16h-0.50% · 17h-0.50% · 17h-0.50%17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h2.50% · 19h2.50% · 19h2.50%19h8.50% · 20h8.50% · 20h8.50%20h12.50% · 21h12.50% · 21h12.50%21h★ BEST0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-7.50% · 23h-7.50% · 23h-7.50%23h▼ WORST-1.50% · 24h-1.50% · 24h-1.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+13.00%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH25% up · 33% down · 42% flat
6 up bars · 8 down · best 12.50% · worst -7.50% · typical |Δ| 1.813%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +11.60%FINAL+11.60%MAX DD-8.89%RECOVERYONGOING · 2 barsMAX RUN-UP+22.49%UNDERWATER14/25 (56%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.1160 · peak 1.2249 · range [0.9741, 1.2249]1.22490.9741break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.2249UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -8.89% · significant0%-8.89%▼ TROUGH -8.89%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -8.89%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOING#2 -4.45%bar 16-20 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -1.50%bar 8-14 · 7 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -8.89%)RECOVERYongoing · 2 barsTIME UNDER WATER56% of session · 14/25 bars
final equity 1.1160 (11.60%) · max DD -8.89% · time-under-water 14/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −9 (42% positive) · μ=1.20 · σ=34.11MIXED EDGELAST 31.48 (+0.89σ vs μ)68.5034.250.00-34.25-68.50μ = 1.200.000.00-38.21-38.210.000.00-30.21-30.21-44.62-44.62-44.62-44.62-44.62-44.62-30.21-30.2119.4719.4719.4719.47-3.70-3.70-7.38-7.38-3.66-3.6613.1113.1127.1627.1654.1854.1868.5068.5036.7036.7031.4831.48v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 31.475 · range [-44.62, 68.50] · μ 1.202 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=219.3916 · σ=222.6030 · range [0.0000, 672.5927] · R²=0.835▬ FLATσ EXTREME 101.46%LAST 672.5927672.5927504.4446336.2964168.14820.0000μ = 219.3916max 672.5927min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 672.59% · range [0.00%, 672.59%] · μ 219.39% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −9 (47% positive) · μ=-0.067 · σ=0.319CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.388 (+1.43σ vs μ)0.5830.2920.000-0.292-0.583μ = -0.0670.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.500-0.500-0.583-0.583-0.409-0.409-0.500-0.500-0.409-0.409-0.208-0.2080.0430.043-0.372-0.372-0.013-0.0130.0400.0400.0290.0290.1140.1140.3210.3210.4630.4630.1340.1340.2300.2300.3880.388v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.388 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
40.8159
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
12.6078
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0272
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.8937
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7912
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4877
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6258
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4556
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0532
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.2846
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1989
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.391 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.30e-3 · top T=8.00h (25.7%) · top-3 cover 60.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.0e-33.0e-32.0e-31.0e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.20e-3 · 7.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.20e-3 · 7.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.73e-3 · 11.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.73e-3 · 11.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.00e-3 · 25.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.00e-3 · 25.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.62e-3 · 23.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.62e-3 · 23.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.26e-3 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.26e-3 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.28e-3 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.28e-3 · 8.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.76e-3 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.76e-3 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.79e-4 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.79e-4 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.40e-4 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.40e-4 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.16e-4 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.16e-4 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.20e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.20e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.10e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.10e-5 · 0.3% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 25.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.559e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1118 bars · effective 1752713 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 6.6 d · σ/bar 0.928pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 11.66ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2059 · n = 1118✓ n = 1118
μ per bar
+0.029pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.928pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
4.55pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move7d
11.66pp
σ × √157.90764638888888
Terminal variancebinary
0.2059
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
71.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.50pp · ES₉₅ 1.89pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.029pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 1118
VaR 95%
1.50pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.89pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
34.3pp
peak 49.5¢ → trough 32.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
71.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.408
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-245
risk $245 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.41 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$40.85
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 71.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.869 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.869 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.49 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.79 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
68010338351149948212129118435478313738144787031851482185834353730189047996268
NO token ID
68264670454249101860441423128985622461636834504916700244271882752146523762097
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:05:32 UTC
Snapshot age
149ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:05:32 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e7364a201e6802a917d761c1f82aa02225a92e8becfa552c77d1b3f64b30d857 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?23¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,450HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.3HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.85

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.595000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
504.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.095
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.235
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-crint-bgd2-aus3-2026-06-14/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.629371577.66bp0.6300002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.7549522688.27bp0.96000020FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.7999153443.95bp0.99000023PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.575932320.47bp0.5700002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.3755753687.81bp0.01000028PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.3755753687.81bp0.01000028PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,118 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2371.14%
σ per bar = 0.017910
Mean return (annualised)
94009.17%
μ per bar = 0.000536
Sharpe (rf=0)
39.65
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
34.34%
peak 0.49 → trough 0.33 over 100 bars

/api/asset/pm-crint-bgd2-aus3-2026-06-14/risk · same metrics, JSON