TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “brazilian · election · president” (3 markets)
Top terms: brazilianelectionpresidentpoliticsbolsonaroaldo
- Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.1¢ YES · $36.7k 24h
- ★ Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?50.5¢ YES · $36.2k 24h
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.7¢ YES · $55.5k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.449 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.155 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.02%
realized vol (ann.)
51.28%
max drawdown
3.81%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.61%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.92%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.81%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.50
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.50
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.02%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change +2.02%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →