POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES · live
1.4¢
NO · live
98.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-michelle-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election · fresh · feed 16s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
505
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-michelle-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING15.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.4¢
NO · live
98.7¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0126 · σ=0.0023 · range [0.0085, 0.0210] · R²=0.076▲ RISING +28.57%σ EXTREME 18.09%LAST 0.01350.02100.01790.01480.01160.0085μ = 0.0126max 0.0210min 0.0085dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.35¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.4%NO 98.7%NO98.7%98.65¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.103 / 1.00 bits (10%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.4%1.4¢74.07×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.7%98.7¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=330 · μ=13.8 · σ=25.6 · CV=1.86BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=7023456890μ = 149050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 330bp moved · peak 90bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
15.5s
▲YES mid
1.35¢ (1.35%)
▼NO mid
98.65¢ (98.65%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$61.8k
≋liquidity $
$202.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0126 · σ=0.0023 · range [0.0085, 0.0210] · R²=0.076▲ RISING +28.57%σ EXTREME 18.09%LAST 0.01350.02100.01790.01480.01160.0085μ = 0.0126max 0.0210min 0.0085dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.35¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9874 · σ=0.0023 · range [0.9790, 0.9915] · R²=0.076▼ FALLING -0.30%σ LOW 0.23%LAST 0.98650.99150.98840.98520.98210.9790μ = 0.9874max 0.9915min 0.9790dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.65¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0026 · skew=0.68 (right-skewed) · kurt=4.48 (leptokurtic (fat tails))16128401-0.76ppbin -0.76pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -0.76pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak-0.59pp-0.41pp2-0.24ppbin -0.24pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin -0.24pp · n=2 · 12.5% peak16-0.06ppbin -0.06pp · n=16 · 100.0% peakbin -0.06pp · n=16 · 100.0% peak30.11ppbin 0.11pp · n=3 · 18.8% peakbin 0.11pp · n=3 · 18.8% peak0.29pp10.46ppbin 0.46pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 0.46pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak0.64pp10.81ppbin 0.81pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 0.81pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.26 · kurt=4.73 · near 6 / mid 17 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.86 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=4.89)
μ MEAN1.26¢95% CI: [1.17¢, 1.35¢]
σ STD DEV0.23ppσ² = 0.052 · CV = 18.09%
med MEDIAN1.35¢Q₁ 1.10¢ · Q₃ 1.35¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.25pp · IQR 0.25pp (1.349σ→0.31pp)
min 0.85¢Q₁ 1.10¢med 1.35¢Q₃ 1.35¢max 2.10¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.564right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.889leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.39
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.23
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.47
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.396within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.019lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.804strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.380fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.804
H = 0.804STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.396k=2+0.019k=3-0.128k=4-0.058k=5+0.2180+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.38)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.38)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID601822
SLUGwill-michelle-bo…ial-election
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.35¢implied prob 1.35% · decimal odds 74.07×
COUNTER · NO98.65¢implied prob 98.65% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.35¢
98.65¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME61.79k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY202.87k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.973 · entropy 0.103 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.4%NO 98.7%YES p̂1.4%H = 0.103 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES74.07×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.103 bits (10% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-10-04 00:00 UTC
105days
14hrs
33min
105.61 days·θ = 1.119 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.4%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.7%)
current: $0.0135 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+52.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.23% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.119 pp/day
now105.61d left
1.119 pp/day×1.00
−25%79.20d left
1.292 pp/day×1.15
−50%52.80d left
1.582 pp/day×1.41
−75%26.40d left
2.237 pp/day×2.00
−90%10.56d left
3.538 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.90% · worst -0.85% · typical |Δ| 0.14%MILD BULLISH +0.30%BEST+0.90%6hWORST-0.85%7hTYPICAL |Δ|0.14%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.30%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.30%+1.05%-0.20%0.15% · 1h0.15% · 1h0.15%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-0.15% · 3h-0.15% · 3h-0.15%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.15% · 5h0.15% · 5h0.15%5h0.90% · 6h0.90% · 6h0.90%6h★ BEST-0.85% · 7h-0.85% · 7h-0.85%7h▼ WORST0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.20% · 9h-0.20% · 9h-0.20%9h-0.05% · 10h-0.05% · 10h-0.05%10h0.10% · 11h0.10% · 11h0.10%11h-0.25% · 12h-0.25% · 12h-0.25%12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH21% up · 21% down · 58% flat
5 up bars · 5 down · best 0.90% · worst -0.85% · typical |Δ| 0.138%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.29%FINAL+0.29%MAX DD-1.25%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.05%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0029 · peak 1.0105 · range [0.9979, 1.0105]1.01050.9979break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0105UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.25% · moderate0%-1.25%▼ TROUGH -1.25%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.25%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.15%bar 4-6 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.25%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0029 (0.29%) · max DD -1.25% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −3 (47% positive) · μ=4.83 · σ=20.31MIXED EDGELAST 0.00 (-0.24σ vs μ)57.4028.700.00-28.70-57.40μ = 4.8343.9743.971.391.391.391.390.000.00-1.38-1.38-2.77-2.77-57.40-57.405.795.795.795.7918.7918.7922.2122.2115.8715.8738.2138.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-57.40, 43.97] · μ 4.835 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=24.6894 · σ=20.7861 · range [0.0000, 52.8970] · R²=0.848▼ FALLING -100.00%σ EXTREME 84.19%LAST 0.000052.897039.672726.448513.22420.0000μ = 24.6894max 52.8970min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.85μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 52.90%] · μ 24.69% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −12 (5% positive) · μ=-0.239 · σ=0.239MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.000 (+1.00σ vs μ)0.5650.2820.000-0.282-0.565μ = -0.2390.1500.150-0.404-0.404-0.401-0.401-0.395-0.395-0.389-0.389-0.492-0.492-0.164-0.164-0.381-0.381-0.414-0.414-0.565-0.565-0.556-0.556-0.489-0.489-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
38.5422
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.4240
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2663
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.9107
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0024
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6708
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5023
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1877
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3783
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5651
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1176
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.524 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.31e-6 · top T=2.40h (27.2%) · top-3 cover 57.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.7e-52.0e-51.4e-56.8e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.51e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.51e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.17e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.17e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.96e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.96e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.09e-6 · 5.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.09e-6 · 5.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.38e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.38e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.13e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.13e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.16e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.16e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.15e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.15e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.72e-5 · 27.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.72e-5 · 27.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.53e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.53e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.38e-6 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.38e-6 · 3.4% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.18h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 27.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.975e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 105.6 d · σ/bar 0.024pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.19ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0133 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.024pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.12pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move106d
1.19pp
σ × √2534.5583847222224
Terminal variancebinary
0.0133
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.04pp · ES₉₅ 0.05pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.04pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.05pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
48.8pp
peak 2.1¢ → trough 1.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
74.074
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+7307
$100 wins $7307
FractionalUK
73.07 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$7307.41
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.103 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.103 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.21 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
91154058715822908897619103072380844452822017332608583147987152526225529443892
NO token ID
16879668974983992641795221456967869661599530861479349066809692639705609051027
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:26:14 UTC
Snapshot age
15.5s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:26:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7bbb05c3c225fc36e85fff8dac1a07628b14da4c8127a43768883ce548a65e7e · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,516HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.28HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,724

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.013500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
740.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.823
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.686
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-michelle-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.03029812442.97bp0.05100024FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.07777147608.38bp0.38800054FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.390202279038.43bp0.88000082FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0022048367.38bp0.00100010FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0014228946.77bp0.00100010PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0014228946.77bp0.00100010PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2027.95%
σ per bar = 0.015319
Mean return (annualised)
0.00%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
48.78%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 2856 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-michelle-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/risk · same metrics, JSON