TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “tech · business · best” (5 markets)

Top terms: techbusinessbestaimodelend

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (4 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?-5.515169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?-4.097169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?-3.765169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?-3.716169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-openai-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -12.07%
realized vol (ann.)
21.09%
max drawdown
30.30%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
20.97%
RMS drawdown
pain index
19.74%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
29.06%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.56
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.56
upside/downside
roll spread
2.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-12.07%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -12.07%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-openai-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →