POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · TECH & BUSINESS

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

YES · live
90.3¢
NO · live
9.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-anthropic-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026 · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
74.54%
max drawdown
2.32%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.32%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.17%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.59%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.75
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.75
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-anthropic-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
90.3¢
NO · live
9.7¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.8895 · σ=0.0118 · range [0.8805, 0.9190] · R²=0.422▲ RISING +2.26%σ NORMAL 1.33%LAST 0.90350.91900.90940.89980.89010.8805μ = 0.8895max 0.9190min 0.8805dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 90.35¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 90.3%NO 9.7%YES90.3%90.35¢ · odds 1/1.11
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.458 / 1.00 bits (46%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
90.3%90.3¢1.11×▬ +0.00pp
NO
9.7%9.7¢10.36×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=700 · μ=29.2 · σ=45.6 · CV=1.56BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2004183124165μ = 2916550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 700bp moved · peak 165bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.8s
▲YES mid
90.35¢ (90.35%)
▼NO mid
9.65¢ (9.65%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$44.7k
≋liquidity $
$65.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8895 · σ=0.0118 · range [0.8805, 0.9190] · R²=0.422▲ RISING +2.26%σ NORMAL 1.33%LAST 0.90350.91900.90940.89980.89010.8805μ = 0.8895max 0.9190min 0.8805dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 90.35¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1105 · σ=0.0118 · range [0.0810, 0.1195] · R²=0.422▼ FALLING -17.17%σ HIGH 10.72%LAST 0.09650.11950.10990.10030.09060.0810μ = 0.1105max 0.1195min 0.0810dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 9.65¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0051 · skew=0.02 (symmetric) · kurt=2.71 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085301-1.39ppbin -1.39pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -1.39pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-1.07pp-0.75pp2-0.43ppbin -0.43pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.43pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak8-0.11ppbin -0.11pp · n=8 · 80.0% peakbin -0.11pp · n=8 · 80.0% peak100.21ppbin 0.21pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.21pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak0.53pp20.85ppbin 0.85pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 0.85pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak1.17pp11.49ppbin 1.49pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 1.49pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.04 · kurt=4.41 · near 9 / mid 14 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.90 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.60)
μ MEAN88.95¢95% CI: [88.49¢, 89.42¢]
σ STD DEV1.18ppσ² = 1.402 · CV = 1.33%
med MEDIAN88.40¢Q₁ 88.30¢ · Q₃ 88.65¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.85pp · IQR 0.35pp (1.349σ→1.60pp)
min 88.05¢Q₁ 88.30¢med 88.40¢Q₃ 88.65¢max 91.90¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.598right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.027leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.47
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 4.56
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.25
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.283within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.136lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.040strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.097significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.040
H = 1.040STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.283k=2+0.136k=3-0.367k=4-0.164k=5-0.1560+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.10)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.10)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID631140
SLUGwill-anthropic-h…of-june-2026
CATEGORYTech & Business
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (90¢)
PRIMARY · YES90.35¢implied prob 90.35% · decimal odds 1.11×
COUNTER · NO9.65¢implied prob 9.65% · decimal odds 10.36×
90.35¢
9.65¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME44.69k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY65.11k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (90¢)|primary − counter| = 0.807 · entropy 0.458 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 90.3%NO 9.7%YES p̂90.3%H = 0.458 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.11×(90¢)NO10.36×(10¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.458 bits (46% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
15days
11hrs
30min
15.48 days·θ = 5.800 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 90.3%)
NO →$0.00(P = 9.7%)
current: $0.9035 · expected return per side: $0.10 on YES hit · $0.90 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+7.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.18% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 5.800 pp/day
now15.48d left
5.800 pp/day×1.00
−25%11.61d left
6.698 pp/day×1.15
−50%7.74d left
8.203 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.87d left
11.601 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.55d left
18.342 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.65% · worst -1.55% · typical |Δ| 0.29%MILD BULLISH +2.00%BEST+1.65%21hWORST-1.55%24hTYPICAL |Δ|0.29%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.15%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.46% · Σ +3.65%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.00%+3.55%-0.30%0.30% · 1h0.30% · 1h0.30%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-0.40% · 4h-0.40% · 4h-0.40%4h0.05% · 5h0.05% · 5h0.05%5h0.05% · 6h0.05% · 6h0.05%6h0.05% · 7h0.05% · 7h0.05%7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.20% · 11h0.20% · 11h0.20%11h-0.10% · 12h-0.10% · 12h-0.10%12h-0.40% · 13h-0.40% · 13h-0.40%13h0.10% · 14h0.10% · 14h0.10%14h0.10% · 15h0.10% · 15h0.10%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.05% · 17h0.05% · 17h0.05%17h0.15% · 18h0.15% · 18h0.15%18h0.70% · 19h0.70% · 19h0.70%19h0.80% · 20h0.80% · 20h0.80%20h1.65% · 21h1.65% · 21h1.65%21h★ BEST0.20% · 22h0.20% · 22h0.20%22h0.10% · 23h0.10% · 23h0.10%23h-1.55% · 24h-1.55% · 24h-1.55%24h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNUS-led (+3.65%)RUNSup max 7 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 21% down · 21% flat
14 up bars · 5 down · best 1.65% · worst -1.55% · typical |Δ| 0.292%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.99%FINAL+1.99%MAX DD-1.55%RECOVERYONGOING · 1 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.59%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0199 · peak 1.0359 · range [0.9970, 1.0359]1.03590.9970break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0359UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.55% · moderate0%-1.55%▼ TROUGH -1.55%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.55%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.60%bar 5-19 · 15 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.55%)RECOVERYongoing · 1 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.0199 (1.99%) · max DD -1.55% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −8 (47% positive) · μ=20.42 · σ=44.04MIXED EDGELAST 27.75 (+0.17σ vs μ)94.5247.260.00-47.26-94.52μ = 20.420.000.00-22.00-22.00-26.58-26.58-26.58-26.5838.2138.2145.2845.2815.1015.10-27.86-27.86-15.10-15.10-7.30-7.30-7.30-7.30-20.44-20.440.000.0066.4666.4679.4279.4282.4882.4891.8691.8694.5294.5227.7527.75v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 27.751 · range [-27.86, 94.52] · μ 20.417 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=28.1722 · σ=23.5823 · range [3.8210, 99.9612] · R²=0.566▲ RISING +372.93%σ EXTREME 83.71%LAST 99.961299.961275.926151.891127.85603.8210μ = 28.1722max 99.9612min 3.8210dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 99.96% · range [3.82%, 99.96%] · μ 28.17% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.002 · σ=0.215CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.194 (+0.91σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.002-0.069-0.069-0.186-0.186-0.210-0.210-0.097-0.0970.1670.167-0.047-0.047-0.474-0.4740.1170.117-0.146-0.146-0.060-0.060-0.067-0.067-0.000-0.000-0.110-0.1100.1020.1020.5000.5000.3650.3650.0110.011-0.020-0.0200.1940.194v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.194 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
33.4670
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.3318
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1376
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.8214
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8113
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2282
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8195
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4859
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0449
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.9636
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3353
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.293 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.00e-5 · top T=12.00h (18.4%) · top-3 cover 45.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.6e-55.0e-53.3e-51.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.93e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.93e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.63e-5 · 18.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.63e-5 · 18.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.90e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.90e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.28e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.28e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.08e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.08e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.45e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.45e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.40e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.40e-6 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.26e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.26e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.46e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.46e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.13e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.13e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.75e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.75e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.40e-5 · 15.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.40e-5 · 15.0% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=12.00h#2T=2.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 18.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.597e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3089 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 15.5 d · σ/bar 0.046pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.88ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0872 · n = 3089✓ n = 3089
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.046pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.22pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move15d
0.88pp
σ × √371.5119847222222
Terminal variancebinary
0.0872
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
90.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.07pp · ES₉₅ 0.09pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3089
VaR 95%
0.07pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.09pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
2.3pp
peak 92.5¢ → trough 90.3¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
90.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.107
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-936
risk $936 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.11 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$10.68
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 90.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.458 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.458 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.15 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
3.37 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
31257690721782087545855558909530748024291398703956697759040950846127149299962
NO token ID
30662373172786599831266104485692607706499745571163346900841435096131975532212
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:29:14 UTC
Snapshot age
1.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:29:16 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2e4d5346642b6ff9640bcd29d9ab10a6552bba841e4ede1ee8d10bc60b4a1a34 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?16¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,446HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.7HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.12

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Tech & Business

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$656
bid $494 · ask $162
Mid price
0.903500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
33.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.658
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.328
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-anthropic-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.917552155.52bp0.92400012FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.930314296.78bp0.93800026FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.980926856.95bp0.99700069FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.89624980.25bp0.88300011FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.849948592.71bp0.82700040FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0378369581.23bp0.001000142PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,089 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
66.95%
σ per bar = 0.000506
Mean return (annualised)
1270.61%
μ per bar = 0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
18.98
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.32%
peak 0.93 → trough 0.90 over 150 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-anthropic-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-june-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON