NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?
← Back to live dashboardEmbed cardOG previewTop moversArb
A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/pm-bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-15-2026 page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.021 · f★ 27.8% · deploy 13.9% · net 1.34pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0209@ model P(YES) = 0.946
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 27.85% · g(f★) = 0.346%deploy 13.92% · g = 0.250%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.925 · EV +$79stake $3,481 · 13.92% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$3,481
13.92% of bankroll
Sharesunits
3,763
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$3,763
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$282
net of cost
Max losslose
-$3,481
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×1.08
$1 → $1.08
Risk:RewardR:R
0.08 : 1
win $0.08 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$79
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 94.6% | +$282 | +$267 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 5.4% | -$3,481 | -$188 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$79 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +2.1 pprelative edge +2.3%
Required win ratebreak-even
92.5%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
94.6%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+2.1 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.946
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
92.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.081
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-1233
risk $1233 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.08 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$8.11
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 39% · APY 47%ROI 2.3% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+2.3%
APR (simple)scaled
+39%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+47%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+0.11%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge +1.34 pperosion 36% · break-even w/ fees 93.3%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$6,962
27.85% · g = 0.346%
Half Kelly½ f★
$3,481
13.92% · g = 0.250%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$1,740
6.96% · g = 0.142%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = 0.022%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = 0.044%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = 0.105%
Recommended¼ f★
$1,740
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.384 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.304 bit
Δ -0.081 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.11 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
3.74 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0035 nat (0.0050 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.946 · CI [0.78, 1.00] · κ 13.2
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.946
Beta(12.5, 0.7)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.78, 1.00]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
13.2
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+2.1 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] +3.2% · P(YES) 95.5% · VaR₉₅ -8.1%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
+3.24%
P(YES) empiricalq
95.5%
Best pathmax
+8.1%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
-8.1%
CVaR 95%ES
84.6%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 0.18% · ruin rate 6.8%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 13.92%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.054
μ 0.20% · σ 3.6%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
0.014
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-13.9%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-13.9%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-15.2%
Calmar 0.01
Ruin rate≤50%
6.8%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap +40.8pp · crowd gap +38.7pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
+40.8 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
+38.7 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 21.7% · AUC 0.775out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 21.7% ± 2.7% · Brier 0.1956 · log-loss 0.5870 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.1956
lower = better · ō 0.51
BSSvs base
21.7%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0037
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0570
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.5870
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.775
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
BLEEDING · PF 1.00 · expectancy -0.001R180 trades · win 52.8% · Sharpe -0.001
Total P/Lnet
-$45
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
52.8%
95 W / 85 L
Profit factorPF
1.00
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
-$0.25
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
-0.001R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$223.22 / -$250.00
ratio 0.89 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
-0.001
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+2.80 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.