NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine

SIMULATOR US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

← Back to live dashboard Embed card OG preview Top movers Arb

A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/pm-us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-june-30 page.

SIDE

MARKET PRICE (YES) 0.022

MODEL P(YES) 0.030

YOUR FILL (YES) 0.022

KELLY FRACTION 0.50

MODEL σ 0.060

BANKROLL (USDC)

DAYS TO RESOLVE

FEE (bps)

SPREAD (¢)

LIQUIDITY ($)

SCENARIO PRESET

▲ YES EDGE · +0.008 · f★ 0.8% · deploy 0.4% · net 0.07pp

§1 · Position economics

Payoff diagram · binary contract P/L vs resolution

YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0082@ model P(YES) = 0.030

P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone

Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.

Kelly growth curve · g(f) with f★ and deployed f markers

f★ = 0.84% · g(f★) = 0.139%deploy 0.42% · g = 0.108%

g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone

Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.

§2 · The trade ticket

Trade ticket · dollar outcomes at this stake

YES @ 0.022 · EV +$39stake $104 · 0.42% of bankroll

Deployed stakestake

$104

0.42% of bankroll

Sharesunits

4,747

each pays $1 if YES

Max payoutwin

$4,747

gross, if win

Max profitwin

+$4,643

net of cost

Max losslose

-$104

binary settles to $0

Payout multiple×

×45.45

$1 → $45.45

Risk:RewardR:R

44.45 : 1

win $44.45 per $1

Expected P/LE[P/L]

+$39

probability-weighted

Outcome	P(model)	P/L	Contribution
Resolves YES (win)	3.0%	+$4,643	+$140
Resolves against (lose)	97.0%	-$104	-$101
Expected value	100.0%	—	+$39

What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.

§3 · Break-even & cushion

Break-even & cushion · margin of safety

Cushion +0.8 pprelative edge +37.1%

Required win ratebreak-even

2.2%

price = implied probability

Model win rateP(win)

3.0%

what you forecast

Cushionedge

+0.8 pp

margin of safety

Fair pricemodel

0.030

where you think it should trade

The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.

§4 · Odds conversion

Implied probability, decimal, American, fractional

Implied probabilityP

2.2%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

45.455

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+4445

$100 wins $4445

FractionalUK

44.45 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$4445.45

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Five views of the same number.

§4b · Time & annualized return

Time & APR · capital lockup vs annualized return

APR 646% · APY 24124%ROI 37.1% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr

Time to resolvehorizon

21.0 d

504h capital lockup

Raw ROIper resolve

+37.1%

APR (simple)scaled

+646%

ROI × 365/days

APY (compounded)if redeployed

+24124%

(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1

Daily expectedper day

+1.52%

geometric, per day held

Capital turns/yrvelocity

×17.4

how often this slot recycles

simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon

Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.

§5 · Costs & net edge

Cost waterfall · gross edge → net of friction

Net edge +0.07 pperosion 92% · break-even w/ fees 2.9%

gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢

The number that decides whether to trade.

§6 · Sizing menu

Sizing menu · disciplined deployment

Full Kellyf★

$209

0.84% · g = 0.139%

Half Kelly½ f★

$104

0.42% · g = 0.108%

Quarter Kelly¼ f★

$52

0.21% · g = 0.065%

Flat 1%1%

$250

1.00% · g = 0.135%

Flat 2%2%

$500

2.00% · g = -0.040%

Flat 5%5%

$1,250

5.00% · g = -1.444%

Recommended¼ f★

$52

survives model error

Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.

§7 · Information theory

Binary entropy · uncertainty in bits

Market entropyH(p)

0.153 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.195 bit

Δ +0.043 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

5.51 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.03 bit

self-information

H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).

KL divergence · upper bound on exploitable edge

NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0014 nat (0.0020 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down

YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise

Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.

§8 · Bayesian inference

Bayesian posterior · prior + evidence → belief with 95% CI

MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.030 · CI [0.00, 0.24] · κ 7.1

Posterior meanE[θ]

0.030

Beta(0.2, 6.9)

95% credible intervalHDI

[0.00, 0.24]

price INSIDE → weak edge

Concentrationκ

7.1

pseudo-obs behind belief

Disagreementvs crowd

+0.8 pp

posterior − price

market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price

When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.

§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)

Mark-to-market MC · single position held to resolution

E[P/L] +59.1% · P(YES) 3.5% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution

Expected P/Lper $1

+59.09%

P(YES) empiricalq

3.5%

Best pathmax

+4445.5%

Worst pathmin

-100.0%

VaR 95%5%

100.0%

CVaR 95%ES

100.0%

median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q

Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.

§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)

Monte-Carlo equity fan · this profile, repeated 400× independently

Median CAGR/bet 0.36% · ruin rate 0.0%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 0.50%

Sharpe / betμ/σ

0.108

μ 0.50% · σ 4.7%

Sortino / betμ/σ↓

1.007

downside-only denominator

VaR 95%5%

-0.5%

per-bet worst-case

CVaR 95%ES

-0.5%

mean tail loss

Max drawdownMDD

-11.8%

Calmar 0.03

Ruin rate≤50%

0.0%

P(equity ever ≤ 50%)

median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line

Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.

§10 · Base-rate & macro context

Probability stack · base rate vs crowd vs model

ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap -54.4pp · crowd gap -55.2pp

Anchor gapmodel − base

-54.4 pp

Crowd gapprice − base

-55.2 pp

Verdictdiscipline

ANCHORED

Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.

§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)

Brier · Murphy decomposition · reliability · ROC

SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 20.2% · AUC 0.770out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 20.3% ± 2.6% · Brier 0.1986 · log-loss 0.5909 · n 1600✓ n = 1600

BrierBS

0.1986

lower = better · ō 0.47

BSSvs base

20.2%

improvement over base rate

ReliabilityREL

0.0061

miscalibration · want ↓

ResolutionRES

0.0557

decisiveness · want ↑

Log lossLL

0.5909

cross-entropy

AUCROC

0.770

0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle

calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)

Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.

§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)

Track record · win rate · PF · expectancy · CLV · equity curve

PROFITABLE · PF 1.40 · expectancy +0.171R180 trades · win 57.8% · Sharpe 0.150

Total P/Lnet

+$7,685

on $45,000 cycled

Win ratehit %

57.8%

104 W / 76 L

Profit factorPF

1.40

$ won / $ lost

Expectancyper trade

+$42.69

avg $ per position

R-expectancyper risk

+0.171R

in units of risk taken

Avg win / losspayoff

$256.58 / -$250.00

ratio 1.03 : 1

Sharpe / traderisk-adj

0.150

μR / σR

Closing line valueCLV

+2.18 pp

avg edge vs close

cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset

The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.