HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

DYDX

DYDX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-dydx · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.82%
realized vol (ann.)
83.79%
max drawdown
3.60%
sharpe
-92.78
ulcer index
1.74%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.47%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4477.09
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.27%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.86
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2380.84
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.86
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.82%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -4.82%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-DYDX/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH851ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.116
24h Δ · live
-4.82%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
DYDX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1200 · σ=0.0018 · range [0.1156, 0.1232] · R²=0.727▼ FALLING -4.78%σ NORMAL 1.48%LAST 0.11560.12320.12130.11940.11750.1156μ = 0.1200max 0.1232min 0.1156dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.12
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,128,747 · μ=85149.9 · σ=125810.3 · CV=1.48BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=100160,007320,015480,022640,030μ = 85150640,029.750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 640030 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
851ms
$mark $
$0.1156
$mid $
$0.1156
◉prev-day close
$0.1214
Δ24h Δ %
-4.818%
$24h vol $
$255.75k
◐open interest $
$3.13M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1200 · σ=0.0018 · range [0.1156, 0.1232] · R²=0.727▼ FALLING -4.78%σ NORMAL 1.48%LAST 0.11560.12320.12130.11940.11750.1156μ = 0.1200max 0.1232min 0.1156dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1156 · 24h -4.82% · range $[0.1156, 0.1232]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.1152, 0.1243] · σ=0.0018 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%BEARISH -4.93%CLOSE 0.1156 vs OPEN 0.1216 (-4.93%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.11560.12430.12200.11970.11740.1152μ close = 0.1200O0.122 H0.122 L0.121 C0.121 (-0.16%)O0.122 H0.122 L0.121 C0.121 (-0.16%)O0.121 H0.123 L0.121 C0.123 (+0.91%)O0.121 H0.123 L0.121 C0.123 (+0.91%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.122 C0.123 (+0.64%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.122 C0.123 (+0.64%)O0.123 H0.123 L0.122 C0.122 (-1.25%)O0.123 H0.123 L0.122 C0.122 (-1.25%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.120 C0.121 (-0.76%)O0.122 H0.124 L0.120 C0.121 (-0.76%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (+0.09%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (+0.09%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (+0.07%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (+0.07%)O0.121 H0.123 L0.119 C0.123 (+1.75%)O0.121 H0.123 L0.119 C0.123 (+1.75%)O0.123 H0.123 L0.121 C0.121 (-1.30%)O0.123 H0.123 L0.121 C0.121 (-1.30%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (-0.40%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.121 (-0.40%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.120 (-0.22%)O0.121 H0.121 L0.120 C0.120 (-0.22%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.120 C0.120 (-0.05%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.120 C0.120 (-0.05%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (-0.57%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (-0.57%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (+0.28%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (+0.28%)O0.120 H0.120 L0.118 C0.118 (-1.25%)O0.120 H0.120 L0.118 C0.118 (-1.25%)O0.118 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (+0.90%)O0.118 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (+0.90%)O0.119 H0.120 L0.119 C0.119 (-0.33%)O0.119 H0.120 L0.119 C0.119 (-0.33%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (+0.36%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.118 C0.119 (+0.36%)O0.119 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (+1.03%)O0.119 H0.121 L0.119 C0.120 (+1.03%)O0.120 H0.120 L0.119 C0.120 (-0.30%)O0.120 H0.120 L0.119 C0.120 (-0.30%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.119 (-0.79%)O0.120 H0.121 L0.119 C0.119 (-0.79%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.119 C0.119 (+0.10%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.119 C0.119 (+0.10%)-1.9%O0.119 H0.119 L0.117 C0.117 (-1.90%)O0.119 H0.119 L0.117 C0.117 (-1.90%)O0.117 H0.118 L0.117 C0.117 (+0.39%)O0.117 H0.118 L0.117 C0.117 (+0.39%)O0.117 H0.117 L0.115 C0.116 (-1.41%)O0.117 H0.117 L0.115 C0.116 (-1.41%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,128,747 · μ=85149.9 · σ=125810.3 · CV=1.48BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=100160,007320,015480,022640,030μ = 8515024,494.2 · 3.8% peak24,494.2 · 3.8% peak34,906.1 · 5.5% peak34,906.1 · 5.5% peak118,243.7 · 18.5% peak118,243.7 · 18.5% peak49,136.2 · 7.7% peak49,136.2 · 7.7% peak640,029.7640,029.7 · 100.0% peak640,029.7 · 100.0% peak51,077 · 8.0% peak51,077 · 8.0% peak24,581.8 · 3.8% peak24,581.8 · 3.8% peak59,863.8 · 9.4% peak59,863.8 · 9.4% peak34,443.3 · 5.4% peak34,443.3 · 5.4% peak33,033.1 · 5.2% peak33,033.1 · 5.2% peak215,061.7 · 33.6% peak215,061.7 · 33.6% peak50,176.3 · 7.8% peak50,176.3 · 7.8% peak46,927.1 · 7.3% peak46,927.1 · 7.3% peak93,940.7 · 14.7% peak93,940.7 · 14.7% peak53,103.6 · 8.3% peak53,103.6 · 8.3% peak193,433 · 30.2% peak193,433 · 30.2% peak20,348 · 3.2% peak20,348 · 3.2% peak36,152.7 · 5.6% peak36,152.7 · 5.6% peak24,281.8 · 3.8% peak24,281.8 · 3.8% peak25,243 · 3.9% peak25,243 · 3.9% peak45,030 · 7.0% peak45,030 · 7.0% peak99,719.1 · 15.6% peak99,719.1 · 15.6% peak67,690.8 · 10.6% peak67,690.8 · 10.6% peak23,638.1 · 3.7% peak23,638.1 · 3.7% peak64,192.6 · 10.0% peak64,192.6 · 10.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2128747 · peak 640030 · CV 1.48

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0018 · σ=0.0085 · skew=-0.02 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.77 (mesokurtic)43210 1-171.33bpbin -171.33bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -171.33bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-141.32bpbin -141.32bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -141.32bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1-111.31bpbin -111.31bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -111.31bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-81.30bpbin -81.30bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -81.30bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-51.29bpbin -51.29bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -51.29bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-21.28bpbin -21.28bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -21.28bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 48.73bpbin 8.73bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 8.73bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 338.74bpbin 38.74bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 38.74bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 268.75bpbin 68.75bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 68.75bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 298.76bpbin 98.76bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 98.76bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak128.77bp 1158.78bpbin 158.78bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 158.78bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.00 · kurt=-0.51 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1156
Mid price
$0.1156
24h change
-4.82%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1214

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1200$95% CI: [0.1193$, 0.1207$]
σ STD DEV0.0018$σ² = 0.032×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.48%
med MEDIAN0.1203$Q₁ 0.1192$ · Q₃ 0.1209$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0076$ · IQR 0.0018$ (1.349σ→0.0024$)
min 0.1156$Q₁ 0.1192$med 0.1203$Q₃ 0.1209$max 0.1232$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.414approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.050mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.15
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.37
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.26
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-21.37
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.203927%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.228
σᵣ STD / h0.892956%σ²ᵣ = 0.797×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.38×
σ ANNUALISED83.58%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.893%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-21.37negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-18.03downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.00approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.34mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.84
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1786.40%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.53%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.535%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.791%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.706%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.15%22h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.535%VaR₉₉−1.791%ES₉₅−1.706%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 22h duration
PEAK12.32$
−6.15% drawdown over 22h
11.56$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.56% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
32.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.105 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.1228
Bollinger MA
$0.1196
Bollinger lower
$0.1163

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.269within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.087lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.834strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.825significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.834
H = 0.834STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.269k=2+0.087k=3-0.194k=4-0.078k=5+0.1100+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.83)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.94very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.83)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$255.75k
Open interest (USD)
$3.13M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.08x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.74% · worst -1.86% · typical |Δ| 0.72%MILD BEARISH -4.89%BEST+1.74%21hWORST-1.86%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.72%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.89%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.07%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.29% · Σ -2.28%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.19% · Σ -1.54%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.89%+1.46%-4.89%0.91% · 15h0.91% · 15h0.91%15h0.55% · 16h0.55% · 16h0.55%16h-1.23% · 17h-1.23% · 17h-1.23%17h-0.87% · 18h-0.87% · 18h-0.87%18h0.07% · 19h0.07% · 19h0.07%19h0.16% · 20h0.16% · 20h0.16%20h1.74% · 21h1.74% · 21h1.74%21h★ BEST-1.55% · 22h-1.55% · 22h-1.55%22h-0.41% · 23h-0.41% · 23h-0.41%23h-0.30% · 00h-0.30% · 00h-0.30%00h0.02% · 01h0.02% · 01h0.02%01h-0.58% · 02h-0.58% · 02h-0.58%02h0.33% · 03h0.33% · 03h0.33%03h-1.28% · 04h-1.28% · 04h-1.28%04h0.77% · 05h0.77% · 05h0.77%05h-0.34% · 06h-0.34% · 06h-0.34%06h0.30% · 07h0.30% · 07h0.30%07h0.89% · 08h0.89% · 08h0.89%08h-0.41% · 09h-0.41% · 09h-0.41%09h-0.81% · 10h-0.81% · 10h-0.81%10h0.15% · 11h0.15% · 11h0.15%11h-1.86% · 12h-1.86% · 12h-1.86%12h▼ WORST0.31% · 13h0.31% · 13h0.31%13h-1.46% · 14h-1.46% · 14h-1.46%14hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-1.07%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 1.74% · worst -1.86% · typical |Δ| 0.721%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-4.87%)FINAL-4.87%MAX DD-6.24%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.46%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9513 · peak 1.0146 · range [0.9513, 1.0146]1.01460.9513break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0146UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.24% · significant0%-6.24%▼ TROUGH -6.24%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -6.24%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.24%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9513 (-4.87%) · max DD -6.24% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-18.86 · σ=23.97UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -73.41 (-2.28σ vs μ)73.4136.710.00-36.71-73.41μ = -18.86-7.81-7.816.136.13-21.74-21.74-11.87-11.87-4.13-4.13-4.98-4.98-15.63-15.63-60.21-60.21-62.60-62.60-22.51-22.51-23.25-23.25-16.54-16.5413.1613.16-1.10-1.109.309.30-5.39-5.39-27.94-27.94-27.84-27.84-73.41-73.41v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -73.413 · range [-73.41, 13.16] · μ -18.860 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=81.5051 · σ=18.0153 · range [51.7746, 112.6934] · R²=0.180▲ RISING +5.25%σ EXTREME 22.10%LAST 81.2187112.693497.463782.234067.004351.7746μ = 81.5051max 112.6934min 51.7746dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 81.22% · range [51.77%, 112.69%] · μ 81.51% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.327 · σ=0.309MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.815 (-1.58σ vs μ)0.8150.4070.000-0.407-0.815μ = -0.3270.2160.2160.1330.133-0.162-0.162-0.289-0.289-0.292-0.292-0.301-0.301-0.411-0.411-0.077-0.077-0.556-0.556-0.738-0.738-0.785-0.785-0.737-0.737-0.446-0.446-0.420-0.420-0.067-0.0670.0060.006-0.064-0.064-0.412-0.412-0.815-0.815v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.815 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1157
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9438
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.8817
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5687
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.4996
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8862
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7946
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0073
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2208
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2222
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.629 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.38e-5 · top T=2.00h (37.1%) · top-3 cover 72.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.2e-43.1e-42.1e-41.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.57e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.57e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.15e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.15e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.64e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.64e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.02e-4 · 9.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.02e-4 · 9.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.07e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.07e-4 · 9.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.89e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.89e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.16e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.16e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.12e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.12e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.90e-4 · 25.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.90e-4 · 25.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.43e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.43e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.36e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.36e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.18e-4 · 37.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.18e-4 · 37.1% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 37.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.126e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-56.01×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -42.83400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.019
annualized -42.83
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -43.08σ ann 77% · Sortino -31.63 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5170%-4117%-3065%-2012%-960%92%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)76.9%Ann. vol σ-4307.9%Sharpe (ann)-3163.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1110.1140.1170.1200.1230.126t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:49:41 UTC
Snapshot age
851ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:49:42 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c2d384734156807c5978a5a273e11da3bfd3ecec7563e694ba99faf8dbca0795 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.17K
bid $973 · ask $194
Depth within 10bp
$1.78K
bid $985 · ask $797
Depth within 50bp
$89.95K
bid $22.73K · ask $67.22K
Mid price
0.115575
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.462
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.723
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-DYDX/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1156546.83bp0.1157104FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.11572813.23bp0.1157405FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.11587425.90bp0.11625020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1155214.71bp0.1154504FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.11532521.59bp0.11519011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.11518733.61bp0.11487020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-DYDX/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.13M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-DYDX/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.230 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$810.01K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.29M
real volume
Net delta
$484.23K
sellers net
Imbalance
-23.01%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
23.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-DYDX/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 4.00% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 10:00:00Z4.0h0.120450→0.1156304.002%5
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h0.123050→0.1196302.779%5
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z3.0h0.123210→0.1206502.078%4

/api/asset/hl-DYDX/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
76.91%
σ per bar = 0.000335
Mean return (annualised)
-3313.39%
μ per bar = -0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
-43.08
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.78%
peak 0.12 → trough 0.12 over 3792 bars

/api/asset/hl-DYDX/risk · same metrics, JSON