HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BTC

BTC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-btc · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.10%
realized vol (ann.)
14.58%
max drawdown
0.29%
sharpe
48.68
ulcer index
0.10%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
7189.04
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.26%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.10
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2740.94
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.10
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.10%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +1.10%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-btc/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$64514.0
24h Δ · live
1.10%
24h vol · live
$1378.6M
BTC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=64293.5600 · σ=215.6272 · range [63811.0000, 64600.0000] · R²=0.615▲ RISING +1.10%σ LOW 0.34%LAST 64515.000064600.000064402.750064205.500064008.250063811.0000μ = 64293.5600max 64600.0000min 63811.0000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $64515.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=22,000 · μ=880.0 · σ=666.9 · CV=0.76STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1308641,7282,5923,456μ = 8803,455.60850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 3456 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.4s
$mark $
$64,514
$mid $
$64,514.5
◉prev-day close
$63,811
Δ24h Δ %
+1.102%
$24h vol $
$1.38B
◐open interest $
$2.11B
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=64293.5600 · σ=215.6272 · range [63811.0000, 64600.0000] · R²=0.615▲ RISING +1.10%σ LOW 0.34%LAST 64515.000064600.000064402.750064205.500064008.250063811.0000μ = 64293.5600max 64600.0000min 63811.0000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $64514.0000 · 24h 1.10% · range $[63811.0000, 64600.0000]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [63705.0000, 64750.0000] · σ=215.6272 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=44%BULLISH +1.26%CLOSE 64515.0000 vs OPEN 63713.0000 (+1.26%)&#9650; CLOSE 64515.000064750.000064488.750064227.500063966.250063705.0000μ close = 64293.5600O63713.000 H63881.000 L63705.000 C63811.000 (+0.15%)O63713.000 H63881.000 L63705.000 C63811.000 (+0.15%)O63811.000 H63965.000 L63810.000 C63945.000 (+0.21%)O63811.000 H63965.000 L63810.000 C63945.000 (+0.21%)O63944.000 H64209.000 L63883.000 C64115.000 (+0.27%)O63944.000 H64209.000 L63883.000 C64115.000 (+0.27%)O64114.000 H64219.000 L64029.000 C64084.000 (-0.05%)O64114.000 H64219.000 L64029.000 C64084.000 (-0.05%)O64084.000 H64221.000 L64063.000 C64207.000 (+0.19%)O64084.000 H64221.000 L64063.000 C64207.000 (+0.19%)O64207.000 H64332.000 L64174.000 C64288.000 (+0.13%)O64207.000 H64332.000 L64174.000 C64288.000 (+0.13%)-0.4%O64289.000 H64298.000 L63899.000 C64010.000 (-0.43%)O64289.000 H64298.000 L63899.000 C64010.000 (-0.43%)O64011.000 H64106.000 L63917.000 C63957.000 (-0.08%)O64011.000 H64106.000 L63917.000 C63957.000 (-0.08%)O63958.000 H64271.000 L63953.000 C64130.000 (+0.27%)O63958.000 H64271.000 L63953.000 C64130.000 (+0.27%)O64130.000 H64315.000 L64120.000 C64271.000 (+0.22%)O64130.000 H64315.000 L64120.000 C64271.000 (+0.22%)O64272.000 H64280.000 L64204.000 C64263.000 (-0.01%)O64272.000 H64280.000 L64204.000 C64263.000 (-0.01%)O64264.000 H64750.000 L64201.000 C64450.000 (+0.29%)O64264.000 H64750.000 L64201.000 C64450.000 (+0.29%)O64449.000 H64545.000 L64350.000 C64431.000 (-0.03%)O64449.000 H64545.000 L64350.000 C64431.000 (-0.03%)O64430.000 H64574.000 L64363.000 C64427.000 (-0.00%)O64430.000 H64574.000 L64363.000 C64427.000 (-0.00%)O64427.000 H64568.000 L64351.000 C64544.000 (+0.18%)O64427.000 H64568.000 L64351.000 C64544.000 (+0.18%)O64544.000 H64697.000 L64481.000 C64555.000 (+0.02%)O64544.000 H64697.000 L64481.000 C64555.000 (+0.02%)O64555.000 H64617.000 L64445.000 C64471.000 (-0.13%)O64555.000 H64617.000 L64445.000 C64471.000 (-0.13%)O64471.000 H64529.000 L64447.000 C64525.000 (+0.08%)O64471.000 H64529.000 L64447.000 C64525.000 (+0.08%)O64526.000 H64540.000 L64298.000 C64313.000 (-0.33%)O64526.000 H64540.000 L64298.000 C64313.000 (-0.33%)O64312.000 H64383.000 L64275.000 C64320.000 (+0.01%)O64312.000 H64383.000 L64275.000 C64320.000 (+0.01%)O64321.000 H64461.000 L64213.000 C64261.000 (-0.09%)O64321.000 H64461.000 L64213.000 C64261.000 (-0.09%)O64261.000 H64435.000 L64207.000 C64408.000 (+0.23%)O64261.000 H64435.000 L64207.000 C64408.000 (+0.23%)O64409.000 H64488.000 L64377.000 C64438.000 (+0.05%)O64409.000 H64488.000 L64377.000 C64438.000 (+0.05%)O64438.000 H64600.000 L64283.000 C64600.000 (+0.25%)O64438.000 H64600.000 L64283.000 C64600.000 (+0.25%)O64600.000 H64655.000 L64454.000 C64515.000 (-0.13%)O64600.000 H64655.000 L64454.000 C64515.000 (-0.13%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=22,000 · μ=880.0 · σ=666.9 · CV=0.76STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1308641,7282,5923,456μ = 880555.799 · 16.1% peak555.799 · 16.1% peak1,421.367 · 41.1% peak1,421.367 · 41.1% peak1,199.153 · 34.7% peak1,199.153 · 34.7% peak696.427 · 20.2% peak696.427 · 20.2% peak296.358 · 8.6% peak296.358 · 8.6% peak680.924 · 19.7% peak680.924 · 19.7% peak1,612.673 · 46.7% peak1,612.673 · 46.7% peak533.748 · 15.4% peak533.748 · 15.4% peak697.99 · 20.2% peak697.99 · 20.2% peak774.566 · 22.4% peak774.566 · 22.4% peak209.284 · 6.1% peak209.284 · 6.1% peak1,643.93 · 47.6% peak1,643.93 · 47.6% peak880.695 · 25.5% peak880.695 · 25.5% peak377.629 · 10.9% peak377.629 · 10.9% peak1,125.001 · 32.6% peak1,125.001 · 32.6% peak865.233 · 25.0% peak865.233 · 25.0% peak524.629 · 15.2% peak524.629 · 15.2% peak446.197 · 12.9% peak446.197 · 12.9% peak668.029 · 19.3% peak668.029 · 19.3% peak247.813 · 7.2% peak247.813 · 7.2% peak3,455.6083,455.608 · 100.0% peak3,455.608 · 100.0% peak888.191 · 25.7% peak888.191 · 25.7% peak323.713 · 9.4% peak323.713 · 9.4% peak988.662 · 28.6% peak988.662 · 28.6% peak885.924 · 25.6% peak885.924 · 25.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 22000 · peak 3456 · CV 0.76

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0004 · σ=0.0018 · skew=-0.73 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.02 (mesokurtic)54310 1-40.32bpbin -40.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -40.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-34.29bpbin -34.29bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -34.29bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-28.25bp-22.22bp-16.19bp 4-10.16bpbin -10.16bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -10.16bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 3-4.12bpbin -4.12bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -4.12bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 41.91bpbin 1.91bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 1.91bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 17.94bpbin 7.94bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 7.94bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 113.97bpbin 13.97bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 13.97bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 520.01bpbin 20.01bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 20.01bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 426.04bpbin 26.04bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 26.04bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.73 · kurt=0.10 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$64,514
Mid price
$64,514.5
24h change
+1.10%
Mark–mid spread
0.08 bps
Prev-day close
$63,811

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.52)
μ MEAN64293.5600$95% CI: [64209.0341$, 64378.0859$]
σ STD DEV215.6272$σ² = 4.65e+4 · CV = 0.34%
med MEDIAN64313.0000$Q₁ 64130.0000$ · Q₃ 64450.0000$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 789.0000$ · IQR 320.0000$ (1.349σ→290.8811$)
min 63811.0000$Q₁ 64130.0000$med 64313.0000$Q₃ 64450.0000$max 64600.0000$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.523left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.825mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.91
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.66
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=22.53
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.045717%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.241
σᵣ STD / h0.189906%σ²ᵣ = 0.036×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.15×
σ ANNUALISED17.77%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.190%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)22.53excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)22.90strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.78left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.43mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.02
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+400.48%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.30%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.299%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.409%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.381%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN0.51%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.299%VaR₉₉−0.409%ES₉₅−0.381%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEshallow drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK6428800.00$
−0.51% drawdown over 2h
6395700.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.27× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.37× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONshallow drawdownrecovery needed: +0.52% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
63.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.721 · within band
Bollinger upper
$64712.1730
Bollinger MA
$64358.8500
Bollinger lower
$64005.5270

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.075within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.080lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.942strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.061significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.942
H = 0.942STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.075k=2-0.080k=3-0.016k=4-0.082k=5-0.4000+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.06)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.96very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.06)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.38B
Open interest (USD)
$2.11B
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.65x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.29% · worst -0.43% · typical |Δ| 0.15%MILD BULLISH +1.10%BEST+0.29%21hWORST-0.43%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.15%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.03%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.91%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.22%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.10%+1.23%0.00%0.21% · 11h0.21% · 11h0.21%11h0.27% · 12h0.27% · 12h0.27%12h-0.05% · 13h-0.05% · 13h-0.05%13h0.19% · 14h0.19% · 14h0.19%14h0.13% · 15h0.13% · 15h0.13%15h-0.43% · 16h-0.43% · 16h-0.43%16h▼ WORST-0.08% · 17h-0.08% · 17h-0.08%17h0.27% · 18h0.27% · 18h0.27%18h0.22% · 19h0.22% · 19h0.22%19h-0.01% · 20h-0.01% · 20h-0.01%20h0.29% · 21h0.29% · 21h0.29%21h★ BEST-0.03% · 22h-0.03% · 22h-0.03%22h-0.01% · 23h-0.01% · 23h-0.01%23h0.18% · 00h0.18% · 00h0.18%00h0.02% · 01h0.02% · 01h0.02%01h-0.13% · 02h-0.13% · 02h-0.13%02h0.08% · 03h0.08% · 03h0.08%03h-0.33% · 04h-0.33% · 04h-0.33%04h0.01% · 05h0.01% · 05h0.01%05h-0.09% · 06h-0.09% · 06h-0.09%06h0.23% · 07h0.23% · 07h0.23%07h0.05% · 08h0.05% · 08h0.05%08h0.25% · 09h0.25% · 09h0.25%09h-0.13% · 10h-0.13% · 10h-0.13%10hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.91%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 0.29% · worst -0.43% · typical |Δ| 0.154%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.10%FINAL+1.10%MAX DD-0.52%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.23%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0110 · peak 1.0123 · range [1.0000, 1.0123]1.01231.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0123UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.52% · shallow0%-0.52%▼ TROUGH -0.52%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -0.52%bar 7-11 · 5 bars · recovered#2 -0.46%bar 17-23 · 7 bars · recovered#3 -0.13%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.52%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.0110 (1.10%) · max DD -0.52% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −5 (74% positive) · μ=16.13 · σ=32.00PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 30.71 (+0.46σ vs μ)74.5537.280.00-37.28-74.55μ = 16.1318.6018.601.161.161.441.4417.0717.075.295.2914.0614.0660.7060.7074.5574.5571.8371.8352.3552.3532.8032.8017.1717.17-15.99-15.99-14.45-14.45-46.44-46.44-18.52-18.52-4.24-4.248.418.4130.7130.71v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 30.705 · range [-46.44, 74.55] · μ 16.131 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=18.1484 · σ=4.9807 · range [9.8898, 26.1363] · R²=0.335▼ FALLING -39.01%σ EXTREME 27.44%LAST 14.911226.136322.074718.013113.95149.8898μ = 18.1484max 26.1363min 9.8898dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 14.91% · range [9.89%, 26.14%] · μ 18.15% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.240 · σ=0.243MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.458 (-0.89σ vs μ)0.7100.3550.000-0.355-0.710μ = -0.240-0.080-0.080-0.051-0.051-0.079-0.0790.1290.1290.0470.0470.1240.124-0.520-0.520-0.234-0.234-0.547-0.547-0.550-0.550-0.172-0.172-0.225-0.225-0.219-0.219-0.322-0.322-0.710-0.710-0.422-0.422-0.248-0.248-0.032-0.032-0.458-0.458v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.458 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.6232
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2694
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.7980
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3261
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3118
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1759
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1518
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7118
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0125
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5497
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5825
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.833 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.85e-6 · top T=3.00h (24.4%) · top-3 cover 59.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-58.5e-65.6e-62.8e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.02e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.02e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.75e-6 · 14.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.75e-6 · 14.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.60e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.60e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.63e-6 · 14.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.63e-6 · 14.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.64e-7 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.64e-7 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.29e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.29e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.81e-6 · 10.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.81e-6 · 10.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.13e-5 · 24.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.13e-5 · 24.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.64e-8 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.64e-8 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.59e-6 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.59e-6 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.31e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.31e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.41e-6 · 20.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.41e-6 · 20.4% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 24.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.618e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 22.14× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
22.14×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 7.56400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.003
annualized 7.56
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.02%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.05%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 39% · APY 47% · Sharpe 2.94σ ann 13% · Sortino 2.02 · n 4999
0%71%141%212%283%353%39.1%APR (simple)46.6%APY (compound)13.3%Ann. vol σ294.4%Sharpe (ann)202.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
616726279063909650276614567264t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 10:50:44 UTC
Snapshot age
4.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 10:50:49 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
38c627ac5a7479ecb22064ab3904345402dbb0cce1413c752281b2ce1c1b4d9e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$602.61K
bid $290.40K · ask $312.21K
Depth within 5bp
$8.51M
bid $4.07M · ask $4.44M
Depth within 10bp
$8.51M
bid $4.07M · ask $4.44M
Depth within 50bp
$8.51M
bid $4.07M · ask $4.44M
Mid price
64514.500000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.044
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.045
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-btc/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K64515.000.08bp64515.001FILLED
BUY$10.00K64515.000.08bp64515.001FILLED
BUY$100.00K64515.000.08bp64515.001FILLED
SELL$1.00K64514.000.08bp64514.001FILLED
SELL$10.00K64514.000.08bp64514.001FILLED
SELL$100.00K64514.000.08bp64514.001FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-btc/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 65 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$64545.00–$64610.002$1.85K
$64480.00–$64545.003$2.46K
$64415.00–$64480.005$3.75K
$64350.00–$64415.001$888
$64285.00–$64350.003$1.60K
$64220.00–$64285.00★3$4.44K
$64155.00–$64220.001$296
$64090.00–$64155.002$1.90K
$64025.00–$64090.001$696
$63960.00–$64025.001$1.61K
$63895.00–$63960.002$1.96K
$63765.00–$63830.001$556

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-btc/volprofile?priceStep=65

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.082 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$11.60K
real volume
Sell weight
$9.84K
real volume
Net delta
$1.75K
buyers net
Imbalance
8.18%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
8.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-btc/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 1 found · deepest 0.51% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 17:00:00Z0ms64288.00→63957.000.515%1

/api/asset/hl-btc/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
13.30%
σ per bar = 0.000058
Mean return (annualised)
39.14%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
2.94
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.52%
peak 64540.00 → trough 64202.00 over 1877 bars

/api/asset/hl-btc/risk · same metrics, JSON