HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

EIGEN

EIGEN-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-eigen · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.54%
realized vol (ann.)
105.83%
max drawdown
3.71%
sharpe
-49.19
ulcer index
1.19%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.85%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4383.78
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.49%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1490.76
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.92
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.54%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
4.16%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +2.54%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-EIGEN/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.190
24h Δ · live
2.54%
24h vol · live
$1.7M
EIGEN · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1927 · σ=0.0056 · range [0.1850, 0.2038] · R²=0.376▲ RISING +1.93%σ NORMAL 2.91%LAST 0.19020.20380.19910.19440.18970.1850μ = 0.1927max 0.2038min 0.1850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.19
Funding direction · live
Long fee 45.2%Short fee 54.8%SHORT FEE54.8%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.993 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
45.2%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
54.8%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000475% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,123,008 · μ=364920.3 · σ=291713.3 · CV=0.80RISING +47% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140292,771585,542878,3131,171,084μ = 3649201,171,084.4750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1171084 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.6s
$mark $
$0.19
$mid $
$0.19
◉prev-day close
$0.1853
Δ24h Δ %
+2.536%
$24h vol $
$1.71M
◐open interest $
$3.05M
%funding (1h)
0.000475%
%funding (yr)
+4.16%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1927 · σ=0.0056 · range [0.1850, 0.2038] · R²=0.376▲ RISING +1.93%σ NORMAL 2.91%LAST 0.19020.20380.19910.19440.18970.1850μ = 0.1927max 0.2038min 0.1850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1900 · 24h 2.54% · range $[0.1850, 0.2038]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.1833, 0.2072] · σ=0.0056 · CV=0.03 · bodyµ=43%BULLISH +2.81%CLOSE 0.1902 vs OPEN 0.1850 (+2.81%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.19020.20720.20120.19520.18930.1833μ close = 0.1927O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.187 (+0.86%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.187 (+0.86%)O0.186 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.75%)O0.186 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.75%)O0.187 H0.188 L0.183 C0.188 (+0.43%)O0.187 H0.188 L0.183 C0.188 (+0.43%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.185 C0.186 (-1.17%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.185 C0.186 (-1.17%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.22%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.22%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.16%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.16%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.184 C0.186 (+0.16%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.184 C0.186 (+0.16%)O0.186 H0.189 L0.185 C0.187 (+0.65%)O0.186 H0.189 L0.185 C0.187 (+0.65%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-1.07%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-1.07%)3.5%O0.185 H0.193 L0.185 C0.192 (+3.51%)O0.185 H0.193 L0.185 C0.192 (+3.51%)O0.192 H0.195 L0.190 C0.195 (+1.51%)O0.192 H0.195 L0.190 C0.195 (+1.51%)O0.195 H0.202 L0.195 C0.200 (+2.77%)O0.195 H0.202 L0.195 C0.200 (+2.77%)O0.200 H0.205 L0.199 C0.200 (-0.30%)O0.200 H0.205 L0.199 C0.200 (-0.30%)O0.200 H0.207 L0.198 C0.204 (+2.16%)O0.200 H0.207 L0.198 C0.204 (+2.16%)O0.204 H0.205 L0.196 C0.198 (-2.94%)O0.204 H0.205 L0.196 C0.198 (-2.94%)O0.197 H0.203 L0.196 C0.198 (+0.51%)O0.197 H0.203 L0.196 C0.198 (+0.51%)O0.198 H0.201 L0.197 C0.198 (-0.30%)O0.198 H0.201 L0.197 C0.198 (-0.30%)O0.198 H0.199 L0.196 C0.197 (-0.46%)O0.198 H0.199 L0.196 C0.197 (-0.46%)O0.196 H0.198 L0.196 C0.197 (+0.10%)O0.196 H0.198 L0.196 C0.197 (+0.10%)O0.197 H0.197 L0.194 C0.197 (-0.05%)O0.197 H0.197 L0.194 C0.197 (-0.05%)O0.197 H0.197 L0.194 C0.194 (-1.12%)O0.197 H0.197 L0.194 C0.194 (-1.12%)O0.194 H0.195 L0.194 C0.194 (-0.21%)O0.194 H0.195 L0.194 C0.194 (-0.21%)O0.194 H0.194 L0.193 C0.194 (-0.21%)O0.194 H0.194 L0.193 C0.194 (-0.21%)O0.193 H0.197 L0.193 C0.196 (+1.55%)O0.193 H0.197 L0.193 C0.196 (+1.55%)O0.196 H0.197 L0.190 C0.190 (-3.16%)O0.196 H0.197 L0.190 C0.190 (-3.16%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,123,008 · μ=364920.3 · σ=291713.3 · CV=0.80RISING +47% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140292,771585,542878,3131,171,084μ = 364920291,814.06 · 24.9% peak291,814.06 · 24.9% peak530,796.15 · 45.3% peak530,796.15 · 45.3% peak238,931.32 · 20.4% peak238,931.32 · 20.4% peak161,317.31 · 13.8% peak161,317.31 · 13.8% peak42,365.65 · 3.6% peak42,365.65 · 3.6% peak97,917.39 · 8.4% peak97,917.39 · 8.4% peak53,983.03 · 4.6% peak53,983.03 · 4.6% peak44,167.96 · 3.8% peak44,167.96 · 3.8% peak687,701.95 · 58.7% peak687,701.95 · 58.7% peak849,754.38 · 72.6% peak849,754.38 · 72.6% peak346,348.74 · 29.6% peak346,348.74 · 29.6% peak354,729.51 · 30.3% peak354,729.51 · 30.3% peak314,149.86 · 26.8% peak314,149.86 · 26.8% peak557,967.05 · 47.6% peak557,967.05 · 47.6% peak433,895.46 · 37.1% peak433,895.46 · 37.1% peak559,105.63 · 47.7% peak559,105.63 · 47.7% peak105,268.37 · 9.0% peak105,268.37 · 9.0% peak670,651.62 · 57.3% peak670,651.62 · 57.3% peak89,221.79 · 7.6% peak89,221.79 · 7.6% peak105,924.66 · 9.0% peak105,924.66 · 9.0% peak96,495 · 8.2% peak96,495 · 8.2% peak671,832.39 · 57.4% peak671,832.39 · 57.4% peak197,865.49 · 16.9% peak197,865.49 · 16.9% peak449,719.2 · 38.4% peak449,719.2 · 38.4% peak1,171,084.471,171,084.47 · 100.0% peak1,171,084.47 · 100.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9123008 · peak 1171084 · CV 0.80

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0006 · σ=0.0144 · skew=0.07 (symmetric) · kurt=0.31 (mesokurtic)97520 2-292.80bpbin -292.80bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -292.80bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak-236.86bp-180.92bp 3-124.97bpbin -124.97bp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -124.97bp · n=3 · 33.3% peak 1-69.03bpbin -69.03bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -69.03bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 9-13.09bpbin -13.09bp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -13.09bp · n=9 · 100.0% peak 442.86bpbin 42.86bp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin 42.86bp · n=4 · 44.4% peak98.80bp 2154.74bpbin 154.74bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 154.74bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak 1210.68bpbin 210.68bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 210.68bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1266.63bpbin 266.63bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 266.63bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1322.57bpbin 322.57bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 322.57bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.06 · kurt=0.59 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.19
Mid price
$0.19
24h change
+2.54%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1853

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.36)
μ MEAN0.1927$95% CI: [0.1905$, 0.1949$]
σ STD DEV0.0056$σ² = 0.314×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.91%
med MEDIAN0.1940$Q₁ 0.1870$ · Q₃ 0.1966$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0188$ · IQR 0.0096$ (1.349σ→0.0076$)
min 0.1850$Q₁ 0.1870$med 0.1940$Q₃ 0.1966$max 0.2038$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.042approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.365platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.22
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.79
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.36
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=4.87
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.079620%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.052
σᵣ STD / h1.529300%σ²ᵣ = 2.339×10⁻⁴ · CV = 19.21×
σ ANNUALISED143.13%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.529%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)4.87excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)5.29strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.07approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.03leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.09
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+697.47%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.72%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.725%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.157%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)3.098%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.67%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.725%VaR₉₉−3.157%ES₉₅−3.098%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK20.38$
−6.67% drawdown over 11h
19.02$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +7.15% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.309 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.2048
Bollinger MA
$0.1942
Bollinger lower
$0.1837

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.161within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.343lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.046strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.725significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.046
H = 1.046STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.161k=2+0.343k=3-0.142k=4+0.119k=5-0.2150+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.72)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.72)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.71M
Open interest (USD)
$3.05M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.56x
1h funding
0.000475%
Funding (annualised)
+4.16%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
3.404× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.702× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.851×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.51% · worst -3.21% · typical |Δ| 1.04%MILD BULLISH +1.91%BEST+3.51%23hWORST-3.21%14hTYPICAL |Δ|1.04%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.91%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.32% · Σ +2.58%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.33% · Σ -2.67%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.25% · Σ +2.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.91%+8.82%-0.86%0.64% · 15h0.64% · 15h0.64%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h-1.23% · 17h-1.23% · 17h-1.23%17h0.22% · 18h0.22% · 18h0.22%18h-0.27% · 19h-0.27% · 19h-0.27%19h0.11% · 20h0.11% · 20h0.11%20h0.70% · 21h0.70% · 21h0.70%21h-1.08% · 22h-1.08% · 22h-1.08%22h3.51% · 23h3.51% · 23h3.51%23h★ BEST1.50% · 00h1.50% · 00h1.50%00h2.84% · 01h2.84% · 01h2.84%01h-0.25% · 02h-0.25% · 02h-0.25%02h2.08% · 03h2.08% · 03h2.08%03h-2.99% · 04h-2.99% · 04h-2.99%04h0.25% · 05h0.25% · 05h0.25%05h-0.35% · 06h-0.35% · 06h-0.35%06h-0.51% · 07h-0.51% · 07h-0.51%07h0.00% · 08h0.00% · 08h·08h-0.05% · 09h-0.05% · 09h-0.05%09h-1.13% · 10h-1.13% · 10h-1.13%10h-0.15% · 11h-0.15% · 11h-0.15%11h-0.26% · 12h-0.26% · 12h-0.26%12h1.49% · 13h1.49% · 13h1.49%13h-3.21% · 14h-3.21% · 14h-3.21%14h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+2.58%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 50% down · 4% flat
11 up bars · 12 down · best 3.51% · worst -3.21% · typical |Δ| 1.036%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.66%FINAL+1.66%MAX DD-6.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+9.05%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0166 · peak 1.0905 · range [0.9912, 1.0905]1.09050.9912break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0905UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.78% · significant0%-6.78%▼ TROUGH -6.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -6.78%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.56%bar 4-9 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -0.25%bar 13-13 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0166 (1.66%) · max DD -6.78% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-1.07 · σ=47.84MIXED EDGELAST -33.27 (-0.67σ vs μ)81.7240.860.00-40.86-81.72μ = -1.07-11.86-11.86-10.26-10.26-31.93-31.9331.5531.5543.3243.3268.9568.9563.7063.7075.4475.4443.7343.7325.7125.7111.9911.99-16.91-16.91-14.47-14.47-47.55-47.55-57.20-57.20-81.72-81.72-77.72-77.72-1.88-1.88-33.27-33.27v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -33.272 · range [-81.72, 75.44] · μ -1.072 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=124.1198 · σ=58.4204 · range [39.1664, 223.3403] · R²=0.017▲ RISING +143.99%σ EXTREME 47.07%LAST 145.2240223.3403177.2969131.253485.209939.1664μ = 124.1198max 223.3403min 39.1664dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 145.22% · range [39.17%, 223.34%] · μ 124.12% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.312 · σ=0.152MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.433 (-0.80σ vs μ)0.5900.2950.000-0.295-0.590μ = -0.312-0.242-0.242-0.205-0.205-0.312-0.312-0.366-0.366-0.168-0.168-0.160-0.160-0.339-0.339-0.532-0.532-0.212-0.212-0.241-0.241-0.384-0.384-0.588-0.588-0.590-0.590-0.196-0.196-0.179-0.179-0.386-0.386-0.357-0.357-0.039-0.039-0.433-0.433v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.433 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.0763
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5838
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.6100
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2504
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4898
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5382
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6508
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5152
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5004
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0416
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.0138
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9890
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.004 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.72e-4 · top T=2.00h (35.4%) · top-3 cover 61.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.2e-38.7e-45.8e-42.9e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.97e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.97e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.82e-4 · 8.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.82e-4 · 8.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.34e-4 · 4.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.34e-4 · 4.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.29e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.29e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.51e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.51e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.11e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.11e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.08e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.08e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.39e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.39e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.90e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.90e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.40e-4 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.40e-4 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.01e-4 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.01e-4 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.16e-3 · 35.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.16e-3 · 35.4% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 35.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.269e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-41.50×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -44.74400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.020
annualized -44.74
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -45.91σ ann 111% · Sortino -28.16 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5509%-4381%-3252%-2124%-996%133%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)110.6%Ann. vol σ-4591.0%Sharpe (ann)-2816.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1820.1880.1930.1980.2030.209t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:49:16 UTC
Snapshot age
1.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:49:18 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4005df55d8ce2bed93190016e2f06d74d16d6f7a54cba91f709cc04b43a709e2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,856.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,656.05HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$59.93

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.13K
bid $1.52K · ask $609
Depth within 10bp
$6.85K
bid $5.56K · ask $1.29K
Depth within 50bp
$82.29K
bid $46.97K · ask $35.32K
Mid price
0.190050
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.372
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.409
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-EIGEN/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1901394.69bp0.1902002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.19034415.46bp0.1905005FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.19107653.96bp0.19320020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1900002.63bp0.1900001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1898719.43bp0.1898003FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.18914147.84bp0.18870013FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+4.751e-6
0.00048% / hr
Annualised APR
4.164%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
87.7d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
87.7d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-4.164%87.7d2.40y
SHORTRECEIVE4.164%87.7d2.40y

/api/asset/hl-EIGEN/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$9.12M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-EIGEN/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.088 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.03M
real volume
Sell weight
$4.80M
real volume
Net delta
$775.46K
sellers net
Imbalance
-8.78%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
8.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-EIGEN/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 5.05% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z8.0h0.203800→0.1935005.054%9
#22026-06-14 14:00:00Z0ms0.196400→0.1902003.157%1
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z2.0h0.187900→0.1855001.277%3

/api/asset/hl-EIGEN/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
110.63%
σ per bar = 0.000482
Mean return (annualised)
-5078.92%
μ per bar = -0.000010
Sharpe (rf=0)
-45.91
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.43%
peak 0.20 → trough 0.19 over 4886 bars

/api/asset/hl-EIGEN/risk · same metrics, JSON