HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

HEMI

HEMI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-hemi · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.24%
realized vol (ann.)
87.97%
max drawdown
3.58%
sharpe
-69.24
ulcer index
1.34%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.97%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4537.49
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.23%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.81
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1885.91
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.81
upside/downside
roll spread
2.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.24%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
540.56%
signalSHORTconfidence 56%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.24%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 63.1bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-HEMI/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.006
24h Δ · live
-3.24%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
HEMI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0063 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0061, 0.0066] · R²=0.595▼ FALLING -3.33%σ NORMAL 1.68%LAST 0.00610.00660.00650.00630.00620.0061μ = 0.0063max 0.0066min 0.0061dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 50.0%Short fee 50.0%SHORT FEE50.0%
Σ = 0.1%
Σ-sides total = 0.12% (99.88pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
50.0%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.0%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.061708% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,784,291 · μ=391371.6 · σ=487008.3 · CV=1.24BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140627,9211,255,8431,883,7642,511,685μ = 3913722,511,68550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2511685 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.7s
$mark $
$0.0061
$mid $
$0.0061
◉prev-day close
$0.0063
Δ24h Δ %
-3.242%
$24h vol $
$60.52k
◐open interest $
$2.10M
%funding (1h)
0.061708%
%funding (yr)
+540.56%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0063 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0061, 0.0066] · R²=0.595▼ FALLING -3.33%σ NORMAL 1.68%LAST 0.00610.00660.00650.00630.00620.0061μ = 0.0063max 0.0066min 0.0061dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0061 · 24h -3.24% · range $[0.0061, 0.0066]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0060, 0.0067] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=45%BEARISH -3.49%CLOSE 0.0061 vs OPEN 0.0063 (-3.49%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00610.00670.00650.00640.00620.0060μ close = 0.0063O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.16%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.16%)5.2%O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+5.17%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.007 (+5.17%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.22%)O0.007 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.22%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.39%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.39%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.16%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.16%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.36%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.36%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.43%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.43%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.33%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.33%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.64%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.64%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.87%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.87%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.19%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.19%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.53%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.53%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.71%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.71%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.06%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.44%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.44%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.47%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.47%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.68%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.68%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.14%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.14%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.42%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.42%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.26%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.26%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.24%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.24%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,784,291 · μ=391371.6 · σ=487008.3 · CV=1.24BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140627,9211,255,8431,883,7642,511,685μ = 391372188,229 · 7.5% peak188,229 · 7.5% peak1,202,094 · 47.9% peak1,202,094 · 47.9% peak307,421 · 12.2% peak307,421 · 12.2% peak426,249 · 17.0% peak426,249 · 17.0% peak231,462 · 9.2% peak231,462 · 9.2% peak357,200 · 14.2% peak357,200 · 14.2% peak197,770 · 7.9% peak197,770 · 7.9% peak179,506 · 7.1% peak179,506 · 7.1% peak354,028 · 14.1% peak354,028 · 14.1% peak517,911 · 20.6% peak517,911 · 20.6% peak304,157 · 12.1% peak304,157 · 12.1% peak259,323 · 10.3% peak259,323 · 10.3% peak207,701 · 8.3% peak207,701 · 8.3% peak227,617 · 9.1% peak227,617 · 9.1% peak260,174 · 10.4% peak260,174 · 10.4% peak199,001 · 7.9% peak199,001 · 7.9% peak2,511,6852,511,685 · 100.0% peak2,511,685 · 100.0% peak242,445 · 9.7% peak242,445 · 9.7% peak142,700 · 5.7% peak142,700 · 5.7% peak332,431 · 13.2% peak332,431 · 13.2% peak225,566 · 9.0% peak225,566 · 9.0% peak216,106 · 8.6% peak216,106 · 8.6% peak210,060 · 8.4% peak210,060 · 8.4% peak245,677 · 9.8% peak245,677 · 9.8% peak237,778 · 9.5% peak237,778 · 9.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9784291 · peak 2511685 · CV 1.24

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0012 · σ=0.0128 · skew=1.88 (right-skewed) · kurt=6.21 (leptokurtic (fat tails))86420 2-215.96bpbin -215.96bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -215.96bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 1-153.36bpbin -153.36bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -153.36bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 4-90.75bpbin -90.75bp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -90.75bp · n=4 · 50.0% peak 7-28.15bpbin -28.15bp · n=7 · 87.5% peakbin -28.15bp · n=7 · 87.5% peak 834.46bpbin 34.46bp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 34.46bp · n=8 · 100.0% peak 197.06bpbin 97.06bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 97.06bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak159.67bp222.27bp284.88bp347.48bp410.09bp 1472.69bpbin 472.69bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 472.69bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.86 · kurt=6.31 · near 15 / mid 8 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.90 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.76σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0061
Mid price
$0.0061
24h change
-3.24%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0063

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.05)
μ MEAN0.0063$95% CI: [0.0062$, 0.0063$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.68%
med MEDIAN0.0063$Q₁ 0.0062$ · Q₃ 0.0063$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0005$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0061$Q₁ 0.0062$med 0.0063$Q₃ 0.0063$max 0.0066$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.096right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.046leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.75
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.07
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-9.48
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.141302%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.101
σᵣ STD / h1.395507%σ²ᵣ = 1.947×10⁻⁴ · CV = 9.88×
σ ANNUALISED130.61%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.396%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-9.48negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.20downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.98right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂8.15leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.18
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1237.81%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.14%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.136%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.430%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.380%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN8.09%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.136%VaR₉₉−2.430%ES₉₅−2.380%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK0.66$
−8.09% drawdown over 23h
0.61$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +8.80% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
37.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.207 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.0064
Bollinger MA
$0.0062
Bollinger lower
$0.0061

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.329within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.155lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.678persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.816significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.678
H = 0.678PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.329k=2+0.155k=3-0.263k=4-0.007k=5-0.0120+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.82)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.69very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.82)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$60.52k
Open interest (USD)
$2.10M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.03x
1h funding
0.061708%
Funding (annualised)
+540.56%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-7.256× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-3.628× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.814×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 5.04% · worst -2.47% · typical |Δ| 0.84%MILD BEARISH -3.39%BEST+5.04%15hWORST-2.47%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.84%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.39%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.38%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.39% · Σ +3.13%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.64% · Σ -5.14%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.39%+5.04%-3.39%5.04% · 15h5.04% · 15h5.04%15h★ BEST-2.47% · 16h-2.47% · 16h-2.47%16h▼ WORST0.37% · 17h0.37% · 17h0.37%17h-2.29% · 18h-2.29% · 18h-2.29%18h-0.03% · 19h-0.03% · 19h-0.03%19h0.11% · 20h0.11% · 20h0.11%20h-0.30% · 21h-0.30% · 21h-0.30%21h-0.40% · 22h-0.40% · 22h-0.40%22h-0.13% · 23h-0.13% · 23h-0.13%23h-0.95% · 00h-0.95% · 00h-0.95%00h0.85% · 01h0.85% · 01h0.85%01h0.14% · 02h0.14% · 02h0.14%02h0.46% · 03h0.46% · 03h0.46%03h-1.28% · 04h-1.28% · 04h-1.28%04h0.35% · 05h0.35% · 05h0.35%05h0.00% · 06h0.00% · 06h·06h-0.97% · 07h-0.97% · 07h-0.97%07h0.39% · 08h0.39% · 08h0.39%08h0.58% · 09h0.58% · 09h0.58%09h0.14% · 10h0.14% · 10h0.14%10h-0.27% · 11h-0.27% · 11h-0.27%11h-0.37% · 12h-0.37% · 12h-0.37%12h-1.22% · 13h-1.22% · 13h-1.22%13h-1.16% · 14h-1.16% · 14h-1.16%14hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.13%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 5.04% · worst -2.47% · typical |Δ| 0.845%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.55%)FINAL-3.55%MAX DD-8.18%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.04%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9645 · peak 1.0504 · range [0.9645, 1.0504]1.05040.9645break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0504UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -8.18% · significant0%-8.18%▼ TROUGH -8.18%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -8.18%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -8.18%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9645 (-3.55%) · max DD -8.18% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-21.70 · σ=23.58UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -50.54 (-1.22σ vs μ)70.8235.410.00-35.41-70.82μ = -21.704.204.20-56.68-56.68-41.40-41.40-53.09-53.09-70.82-70.82-21.18-21.18-20.23-20.23-0.39-0.39-17.04-17.04-7.66-7.6611.3211.32-27.56-27.56-21.44-21.44-18.52-18.5214.0614.06-3.64-3.64-13.70-13.70-17.98-17.98-50.54-50.54v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -50.535 · range [-70.82, 14.06] · μ -21.699 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=77.5016 · σ=46.3329 · range [34.9308, 253.9582] · R²=0.260▼ FALLING -73.83%σ EXTREME 59.78%LAST 66.4618253.9582199.2014144.444589.687734.9308μ = 77.5016max 253.9582min 34.9308dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.26μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 66.46% · range [34.93%, 253.96%] · μ 77.50% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.204 · σ=0.286MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.479 (+2.39σ vs μ)0.6170.3090.000-0.309-0.617μ = -0.204-0.371-0.371-0.465-0.465-0.424-0.424-0.091-0.091-0.039-0.039-0.451-0.451-0.271-0.271-0.219-0.219-0.306-0.306-0.461-0.461-0.312-0.312-0.423-0.423-0.617-0.617-0.218-0.218-0.048-0.048-0.068-0.0680.0360.0360.3870.3870.4790.479v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.479 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
82.1455
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.6844
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3380
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7146
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4311
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1323
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7177
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0119
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.0081
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0446
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.389 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.15e-4 · top T=2.00h (26.7%) · top-3 cover 55.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)6.9e-45.2e-43.5e-41.7e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.24e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.24e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.27e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.27e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.92e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.92e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.53e-4 · 9.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.53e-4 · 9.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.44e-4 · 9.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.44e-4 · 9.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.42e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.42e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.77e-4 · 6.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.77e-4 · 6.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.86e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.86e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.64e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.64e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.79e-4 · 18.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.79e-4 · 18.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.53e-4 · 9.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.53e-4 · 9.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.91e-4 · 26.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.91e-4 · 26.7% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 26.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.585e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-37.10×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -39.05400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.017
annualized -39.05
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -39.49σ ann 106% · Sortino -14.99 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4739%-3766%-2792%-1819%-846%128%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)106.4%Ann. vol σ-3949.0%Sharpe (ann)-1498.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.007t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:48:46 UTC
Snapshot age
2.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:48:48 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0e9f17c72d149569e837bb2892a703bd4fc3d94c332148d99ba5ee33cfd7b06a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$1.88K
bid $1.73K · ask $155
Depth within 5bp
$1.98K
bid $1.73K · ask $255
Depth within 10bp
$4.40K
bid $2.65K · ask $1.75K
Depth within 50bp
$13.52K
bid $8.85K · ask $4.67K
Mid price
0.006058
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.148
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.143
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-HEMI/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0060614.85bp0.0060623FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00608847.99bp0.00611115FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00610068.54bp0.00614620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0060580.83bp0.0060581FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00604325.96bp0.00602811FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00602948.48bp0.00599920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+6.171e-4
0.06171% / hr
Annualised APR
540.930%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
16.2h
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
16.2h
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-540.930%16.2h6.8d
SHORTRECEIVE540.930%16.2h6.8d

/api/asset/hl-HEMI/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$9.78M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-HEMI/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.236 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$5.93M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.66M
real volume
Net delta
$2.27M
buyers net
Imbalance
23.64%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
23.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-HEMI/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 4.32% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z4.0h0.006592→0.0063074.323%5
#22026-06-14 12:00:00Z2.0h0.006245→0.0060592.978%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.006294→0.0061761.875%5

/api/asset/hl-HEMI/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
106.44%
σ per bar = 0.000464
Mean return (annualised)
-4203.25%
μ per bar = -0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
-39.49
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.86%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 4935 bars

/api/asset/hl-HEMI/risk · same metrics, JSON