HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MEGA

MEGA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-mega · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.96%
realized vol (ann.)
112.61%
max drawdown
3.13%
sharpe
-10.56
ulcer index
1.52%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.35%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-780.15
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.89%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-411.37
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
1.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.96%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-MEGA/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.054
24h Δ · live
-0.96%
24h vol · live
$1.3M
MEGA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0551 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.0539, 0.0571] · R²=0.398▼ FALLING -0.65%σ NORMAL 1.88%LAST 0.05390.05710.05630.05550.05470.0539μ = 0.0551max 0.0571min 0.0539dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=24,377,631 · μ=975105.2 · σ=634559.3 · CV=0.65RISING +34% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140647,3461,294,6921,942,0382,589,384μ = 9751052,589,38450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2589384 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.7s
$mark $
$0.0538
$mid $
$0.0538
◉prev-day close
$0.0544
Δ24h Δ %
-0.957%
$24h vol $
$1.31M
◐open interest $
$6.75M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0551 · σ=0.0010 · range [0.0539, 0.0571] · R²=0.398▼ FALLING -0.65%σ NORMAL 1.88%LAST 0.05390.05710.05630.05550.05470.0539μ = 0.0551max 0.0571min 0.0539dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0538 · 24h -0.96% · range $[0.0539, 0.0571]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0533, 0.0594] · σ=0.0010 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=41%BEARISH -2.04%CLOSE 0.0539 vs OPEN 0.0550 (-2.04%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.05390.05940.05790.05630.05480.0533μ close = 0.0551O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.39%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.39%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.84%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.84%)O0.055 H0.057 L0.055 C0.056 (+2.38%)O0.055 H0.057 L0.055 C0.056 (+2.38%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.03%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.03%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.057 (+1.30%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.057 (+1.30%)O0.057 H0.058 L0.056 C0.056 (-1.12%)O0.057 H0.058 L0.056 C0.056 (-1.12%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.59%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.59%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.58%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.58%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.055 C0.056 (-0.43%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.055 C0.056 (-0.43%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.75%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.75%)O0.055 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.69%)O0.055 H0.056 L0.055 C0.055 (-0.69%)O0.055 H0.056 L0.055 C0.056 (+1.73%)O0.055 H0.056 L0.055 C0.056 (+1.73%)O0.056 H0.058 L0.056 C0.057 (+1.95%)O0.056 H0.058 L0.056 C0.057 (+1.95%)O0.057 H0.059 L0.055 C0.056 (-2.28%)O0.057 H0.059 L0.055 C0.056 (-2.28%)-2.5%O0.056 H0.056 L0.054 C0.054 (-2.52%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.054 C0.054 (-2.52%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.41%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.41%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.12%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.12%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.21%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.21%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.33%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.33%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.68%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.68%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.26%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.26%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.00%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.00%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.06%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.06%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.19%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.19%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (-0.14%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (-0.14%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=24,377,631 · μ=975105.2 · σ=634559.3 · CV=0.65RISING +34% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140647,3461,294,6921,942,0382,589,384μ = 9751051,101,114 · 42.5% peak1,101,114 · 42.5% peak1,479,784 · 57.1% peak1,479,784 · 57.1% peak741,804 · 28.6% peak741,804 · 28.6% peak771,905 · 29.8% peak771,905 · 29.8% peak345,120 · 13.3% peak345,120 · 13.3% peak1,124,240 · 43.4% peak1,124,240 · 43.4% peak2,142,782 · 82.8% peak2,142,782 · 82.8% peak272,878 · 10.5% peak272,878 · 10.5% peak1,004,131 · 38.8% peak1,004,131 · 38.8% peak268,779 · 10.4% peak268,779 · 10.4% peak983,665 · 38.0% peak983,665 · 38.0% peak189,467 · 7.3% peak189,467 · 7.3% peak1,004,806 · 38.8% peak1,004,806 · 38.8% peak2,170,601 · 83.8% peak2,170,601 · 83.8% peak1,386,403 · 53.5% peak1,386,403 · 53.5% peak270,636 · 10.5% peak270,636 · 10.5% peak1,151,528 · 44.5% peak1,151,528 · 44.5% peak709,386 · 27.4% peak709,386 · 27.4% peak1,140,179 · 44.0% peak1,140,179 · 44.0% peak656,252 · 25.3% peak656,252 · 25.3% peak215,471 · 8.3% peak215,471 · 8.3% peak1,058,786 · 40.9% peak1,058,786 · 40.9% peak394,942 · 15.3% peak394,942 · 15.3% peak2,589,3842,589,384 · 100.0% peak2,589,384 · 100.0% peak1,203,588 · 46.5% peak1,203,588 · 46.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 24377631 · peak 2589384 · CV 0.65

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0114 · skew=-0.20 (symmetric) · kurt=0.11 (mesokurtic)65320 1-264.10bpbin -264.10bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -264.10bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-219.70bpbin -219.70bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -219.70bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-175.30bp 1-130.89bpbin -130.89bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -130.89bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3-86.49bpbin -86.49bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -86.49bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 3-42.09bpbin -42.09bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -42.09bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 62.31bpbin 2.31bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 2.31bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 446.72bpbin 46.72bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 46.72bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 191.12bpbin 91.12bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 91.12bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1135.52bpbin 135.52bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 135.52bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2179.92bpbin 179.92bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 179.92bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1224.32bpbin 224.32bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 224.32bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.19 · kurt=0.35 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0538
Mid price
$0.0538
24h change
-0.96%
Mark–mid spread
1.30 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0544

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.49)
μ MEAN0.0551$95% CI: [0.0547$, 0.0555$]
σ STD DEV0.0010$σ² = 0.011×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.88%
med MEDIAN0.0548$Q₁ 0.0541$ · Q₃ 0.0561$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0032$ · IQR 0.0019$ (1.349σ→0.0014$)
min 0.0539$Q₁ 0.0541$med 0.0548$Q₃ 0.0561$max 0.0571$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.302approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.492platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.29
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.72
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.11
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-2.10
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.027299%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.022
σᵣ STD / h1.214081%σ²ᵣ = 1.474×10⁻⁴ · CV = 44.47×
σ ANNUALISED113.63%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.214%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-2.10negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-2.16downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-42.40drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.20approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.74mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.03
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -42.40
EXPECTED EDGE-239.14%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.15%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.153%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.737%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.589%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.64%12h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.153%VaR₉₉−2.737%ES₉₅−2.589%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 12h duration
PEAK5.71$
−5.64% drawdown over 12h
5.39$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.20× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.27× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.98% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.227 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0570
Bollinger MA
$0.0550
Bollinger lower
$0.0529

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.195within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.210lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.839strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.899significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.839
H = 0.839STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.195k=2-0.210k=3-0.304k=4-0.031k=5+0.0310+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.90)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.87very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.90)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.31M
Open interest (USD)
$6.75M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.19x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-1.852× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-0.926× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.463×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.47% · worst -2.86% · typical |Δ| 0.88%MILD BEARISH -0.66%BEST+2.47%13hWORST-2.86%01hTYPICAL |Δ|0.88%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.66%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 5down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.67% · Σ -5.33%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.50% · Σ +4.04%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.63%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.66%+5.15%-0.66%0.88% · 12h0.88% · 12h0.88%12h2.47% · 13h2.47% · 13h2.47%13h★ BEST0.01% · 14h0.01% · 14h0.01%14h1.16% · 15h1.16% · 15h1.16%15h-1.07% · 16h-1.07% · 16h-1.07%16h0.53% · 17h0.53% · 17h0.53%17h-0.57% · 18h-0.57% · 18h-0.57%18h-0.43% · 19h-0.43% · 19h-0.43%19h-0.72% · 20h-0.72% · 20h-0.72%20h-0.73% · 21h-0.73% · 21h-0.73%21h1.73% · 22h1.73% · 22h1.73%22h1.88% · 23h1.88% · 23h1.88%23h-2.31% · 00h-2.31% · 00h-2.31%00h-2.86% · 01h-2.86% · 01h-2.86%01h▼ WORST-0.51% · 02h-0.51% · 02h-0.51%02h0.15% · 03h0.15% · 03h0.15%03h0.44% · 04h0.44% · 04h0.44%04h0.39% · 05h0.39% · 05h0.39%05h0.62% · 06h0.62% · 06h0.62%06h-1.24% · 07h-1.24% · 07h-1.24%07h-0.04% · 08h-0.04% · 08h-0.04%08h-0.07% · 09h-0.07% · 09h-0.07%09h-0.18% · 10h-0.18% · 10h-0.18%10h-0.19% · 11h-0.19% · 11h-0.19%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+4.04%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 5BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 2.47% · worst -2.86% · typical |Δ| 0.883%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.82%)FINAL-0.82%MAX DD-5.72%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.19%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 5EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9918 · peak 1.0519 · range [0.9918, 1.0519]1.05190.9918break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0519UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.72% · significant0%-5.72%▼ TROUGH -5.72%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -5.72%bar 14-25 · 12 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.95%bar 6-12 · 7 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.72%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9918 (-0.82%) · max DD -5.72% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-11.45 · σ=29.12UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -28.62 (-0.59σ vs μ)84.8042.400.00-42.40-84.80μ = -11.4552.6152.6131.0731.07-6.95-6.95-19.98-19.98-84.80-84.80-2.91-2.9114.4714.47-5.62-5.62-23.74-23.74-22.14-22.14-15.09-15.09-28.19-28.19-50.70-50.70-21.03-21.03-3.31-3.317.467.462.402.40-12.44-12.44-28.62-28.62v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -28.624 · range [-84.80, 52.61] · μ -11.447 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=109.9238 · σ=47.5245 · range [51.3344, 186.1362] · R²=0.032▼ FALLING -49.41%σ EXTREME 43.23%LAST 55.9489186.1362152.4358118.735385.034951.3344μ = 109.9238max 186.1362min 51.3344dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 55.95% · range [51.33%, 186.14%] · μ 109.92% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.080 · σ=0.326CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.547 (-1.43σ vs μ)0.5720.2860.000-0.286-0.572μ = -0.080-0.252-0.252-0.313-0.313-0.572-0.572-0.519-0.519-0.416-0.416-0.117-0.1170.3890.389-0.101-0.1010.2450.2450.2440.2440.2830.2830.0300.0300.5200.5200.2220.222-0.126-0.126-0.108-0.108-0.129-0.129-0.255-0.255-0.547-0.547v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.547 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.7120
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7005
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.0756
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4073
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5041
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5314
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-2.0673
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0387
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5494
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0305
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.2776
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7813
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.084 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.43e-4 · top T=8.00h (24.9%) · top-3 cover 59.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.3e-43.2e-42.1e-41.1e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 8.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 8.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.14e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.14e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.26e-4 · 24.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.26e-4 · 24.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.57e-4 · 9.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.57e-4 · 9.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.81e-4 · 22.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.81e-4 · 22.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.47e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.47e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.17e-4 · 12.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.17e-4 · 12.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.33e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.33e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.06e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.06e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.49e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.49e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.29e-4 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.29e-4 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.26e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.26e-5 · 1.9% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 24.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.711e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.004% per barparametric μ/σ² -9.91× · μ -0.004% · σ 0.20%
μ per barmean
-0.004%
σ per barvol
0.20%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-9.91×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.13%-0.07%-0.01%0.04%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -45.18400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.020
annualized -45.18
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.98×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -46.01σ ann 464% · Sortino -30.37 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5521%-4306%-3090%-1874%-659%557%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)464.1%Ann. vol σ-4601.2%Sharpe (ann)-3037.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0500.0530.0570.0610.0650.069t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:34:45 UTC
Snapshot age
3.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:34:49 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
26b9b2fd0f70c7e2cf456af1e6cd4de79a44129b7b8fcf44ac7202caa4ca2f1a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,653HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.66HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.33K
bid $924 · ask $403
Depth within 10bp
$5.76K
bid $4.80K · ask $966
Depth within 50bp
$42.60K
bid $22.40K · ask $20.20K
Mid price
0.053848
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.053
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.342
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-MEGA/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0538826.35bp0.0539085FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.05390811.08bp0.0539308FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.05394217.46bp0.05401420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0538244.41bp0.0538094FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.05379110.67bp0.05377012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.05376216.03bp0.05372220PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-MEGA/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$24.38M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-MEGA/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.112 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$10.33M
real volume
Sell weight
$12.94M
real volume
Net delta
$2.61M
sellers net
Imbalance
-11.22%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
11.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-MEGA/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 5.53% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 00:00:00Z3.0h0.057074→0.0539165.533%4
#22026-06-19 16:00:00Z5.0h0.056713→0.0550472.938%6
#32026-06-20 07:00:00Z2.0h0.054786→0.0540541.336%3

/api/asset/hl-MEGA/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
464.13%
σ per bar = 0.002024
Mean return (annualised)
-21355.69%
μ per bar = -0.000041
Sharpe (rf=0)
-46.01
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
19.84%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.05 over 3405 bars

/api/asset/hl-MEGA/risk · same metrics, JSON