HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SAGA

SAGA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-saga · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.55%
realized vol (ann.)
96.89%
max drawdown
2.81%
sharpe
-71.06
ulcer index
1.43%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.26%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4830.16
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.57%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.87
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2675.19
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.87
upside/downside
roll spread
2.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.55%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 36%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-SAGA/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.013
24h Δ · live
0.55%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
SAGA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0132 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0127, 0.0136] · R²=0.012▲ RISING +0.71%σ NORMAL 1.82%LAST 0.01280.01360.01340.01320.01290.0127μ = 0.0132max 0.0136min 0.0127dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=16,457,413 · μ=658296.5 · σ=416023.5 · CV=0.63FADING -40% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110455,871911,7431,367,6141,823,486μ = 6582971,823,485.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1823486 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.1s
$mark $
$0.0128
$mid $
$0.0128
◉prev-day close
$0.0127
Δ24h Δ %
+0.550%
$24h vol $
$215.39k
◐open interest $
$153.22k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0132 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0127, 0.0136] · R²=0.012▲ RISING +0.71%σ NORMAL 1.82%LAST 0.01280.01360.01340.01320.01290.0127μ = 0.0132max 0.0136min 0.0127dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0128 · 24h 0.55% · range $[0.0127, 0.0136]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0126, 0.0140] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=49%BULLISH +1.11%CLOSE 0.0128 vs OPEN 0.0127 (+1.11%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.01280.01400.01360.01330.01300.0126μ close = 0.0132O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.39%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.39%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.65%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.65%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.00%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.23%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.23%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)3.7%O0.013 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (+3.65%)O0.013 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (+3.65%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.44%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.014 C0.014 (-0.44%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (-0.22%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (-0.22%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (+0.00%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.014 (+0.00%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.04%)O0.014 H0.014 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.04%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.94%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.94%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.22%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.22%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.05%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.05%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.68%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.68%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.98%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.98%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.07%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.07%)O0.013 H0.014 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.91%)O0.013 H0.014 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.91%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.87%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.87%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.38%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.84%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.84%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.52%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.52%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.15%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.15%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.07%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.07%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.62%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.62%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=16,457,413 · μ=658296.5 · σ=416023.5 · CV=0.63FADING -40% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110455,871911,7431,367,6141,823,486μ = 658297258,183.4 · 14.2% peak258,183.4 · 14.2% peak866,951.6 · 47.5% peak866,951.6 · 47.5% peak617,169.9 · 33.8% peak617,169.9 · 33.8% peak527,267.1 · 28.9% peak527,267.1 · 28.9% peak595,786.3 · 32.7% peak595,786.3 · 32.7% peak263,657.7 · 14.5% peak263,657.7 · 14.5% peak946,665.7 · 51.9% peak946,665.7 · 51.9% peak1,652,930 · 90.6% peak1,652,930 · 90.6% peak1,175,695.8 · 64.5% peak1,175,695.8 · 64.5% peak924,597.6 · 50.7% peak924,597.6 · 50.7% peak613,718.6 · 33.7% peak613,718.6 · 33.7% peak1,823,485.61,823,485.6 · 100.0% peak1,823,485.6 · 100.0% peak207,431.9 · 11.4% peak207,431.9 · 11.4% peak330,257.2 · 18.1% peak330,257.2 · 18.1% peak155,913.7 · 8.6% peak155,913.7 · 8.6% peak801,383.7 · 43.9% peak801,383.7 · 43.9% peak456,616.5 · 25.0% peak456,616.5 · 25.0% peak602,370.6 · 33.0% peak602,370.6 · 33.0% peak573,677 · 31.5% peak573,677 · 31.5% peak458,872.2 · 25.2% peak458,872.2 · 25.2% peak372,349.5 · 20.4% peak372,349.5 · 20.4% peak557,892.1 · 30.6% peak557,892.1 · 30.6% peak296,673.9 · 16.3% peak296,673.9 · 16.3% peak914,738.1 · 50.2% peak914,738.1 · 50.2% peak463,127 · 25.4% peak463,127 · 25.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 16457413 · peak 1823486 · CV 0.63

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0004 · σ=0.0120 · skew=0.78 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.03 (leptokurtic (fat tails))54310 3-172.30bpbin -172.30bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -172.30bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-124.13bpbin -124.13bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -124.13bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-75.96bpbin -75.96bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -75.96bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-27.79bpbin -27.79bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -27.79bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 220.38bpbin 20.38bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 20.38bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 468.55bpbin 68.55bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 68.55bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 3116.71bpbin 116.71bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 116.71bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1164.88bpbin 164.88bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 164.88bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak213.05bp261.22bp309.39bp 1357.56bpbin 357.56bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 357.56bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.80 · kurt=1.38 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0128
Mid price
$0.0128
24h change
+0.55%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0127

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0132$95% CI: [0.0131$, 0.0133$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.82%
med MEDIAN0.0131$Q₁ 0.0130$ · Q₃ 0.0133$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0009$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0127$Q₁ 0.0130$med 0.0131$Q₃ 0.0133$max 0.0136$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.270approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.732mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.21
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.19
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.81
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCELLENT · SR=2.15
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.029400%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.023
σᵣ STD / h1.282048%σ²ᵣ = 1.644×10⁻⁴ · CV = 43.61×
σ ANNUALISED119.99%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.282%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)2.15excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)2.56strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)42.78exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.86right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.02leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.19
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 42.78
EXPECTED EDGE+257.55%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.87%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.866%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.946%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.925%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.02%18h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.866%VaR₉₉−1.946%ES₉₅−1.925%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 18h duration
PEAK1.36$
−6.02% drawdown over 18h
1.28$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.41% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
46.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.039 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0137
Bollinger MA
$0.0132
Bollinger lower
$0.0128

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.096within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.017lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.993strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.523fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.993
H = 0.993STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.096k=2-0.017k=3+0.228k=4-0.077k=5-0.0410+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.52)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.52)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$215.39k
Open interest (USD)
$153.22k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.41x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
1.789× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
0.894× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.447×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.82% · worst -1.96% · typical |Δ| 0.95%MILD BULLISH +0.71%BEST+3.82%19hWORST-1.96%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.95%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.71%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.04%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.52%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.41% · Σ +3.27%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.71%+6.92%0.00%1.64% · 14h1.64% · 14h1.64%14h0.23% · 15h0.23% · 15h0.23%15h0.77% · 16h0.77% · 16h0.77%16h-0.08% · 17h-0.08% · 17h-0.08%17h0.54% · 18h0.54% · 18h0.54%18h3.82% · 19h3.82% · 19h3.82%19h★ BEST-0.22% · 20h-0.22% · 20h-0.22%20h-0.52% · 21h-0.52% · 21h-0.52%21h-0.07% · 22h-0.07% · 22h-0.07%22h-0.97% · 23h-0.97% · 23h-0.97%23h-1.89% · 00h-1.89% · 00h-1.89%00h1.06% · 01h1.06% · 01h1.06%01h-0.91% · 02h-0.91% · 02h-0.91%02h0.68% · 03h0.68% · 03h0.68%03h-1.14% · 04h-1.14% · 04h-1.14%04h1.14% · 05h1.14% · 05h1.14%05h0.98% · 06h0.98% · 06h0.98%06h-1.96% · 07h-1.96% · 07h-1.96%07h▼ WORST0.00% · 08h0.00% · 08h·08h0.91% · 09h0.91% · 09h0.91%09h-1.75% · 10h-1.75% · 10h-1.75%10h-0.08% · 11h-0.08% · 11h-0.08%11h-0.77% · 12h-0.77% · 12h-0.77%12h-0.70% · 13h-0.70% · 13h-0.70%13hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+3.27%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 3.82% · worst -1.96% · typical |Δ| 0.951%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.52%FINAL+0.52%MAX DD-6.11%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+7.06%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0052 · peak 1.0706 · range [1.0000, 1.0706]1.07061.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0706UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.11% · significant0%-6.11%▼ TROUGH -6.11%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -6.11%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.08%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.11%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0052 (0.52%) · max DD -6.11% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-3.50 · σ=37.16MIXED EDGELAST -41.50 (-1.02σ vs μ)75.4537.730.00-37.73-75.45μ = -3.5075.4575.4552.4852.4842.2142.2133.2933.2923.1823.181.211.21-41.41-41.41-51.81-51.81-29.36-29.36-43.06-43.06-12.67-12.6727.1427.14-14.55-14.55-3.79-3.79-0.92-0.92-7.63-7.63-23.34-23.34-51.48-51.48-41.50-41.50v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -41.499 · range [-51.81, 75.45] · μ -3.504 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=122.8596 · σ=26.2421 · range [84.1892, 184.2381] · R²=0.290▼ FALLING -37.08%σ EXTREME 21.36%LAST 84.1892184.2381159.2259134.2137109.201584.1892μ = 122.8596max 184.2381min 84.1892dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 84.19% · range [84.19%, 184.24%] · μ 122.86% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.321 · σ=0.199MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.419 (-0.49σ vs μ)0.6850.3420.000-0.342-0.685μ = -0.321-0.050-0.050-0.326-0.326-0.174-0.174-0.084-0.084-0.003-0.0030.0650.065-0.340-0.340-0.480-0.480-0.445-0.445-0.515-0.515-0.685-0.685-0.474-0.474-0.379-0.379-0.373-0.373-0.255-0.255-0.244-0.244-0.539-0.539-0.380-0.380-0.419-0.419v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.419 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
7.0159
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0300
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.0402
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8448
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0958
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2559
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1323
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1956
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3644
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4673
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6403
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.858 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.65e-4 · top T=2.67h (30.6%) · top-3 cover 61.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)6.0e-44.5e-43.0e-41.5e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.31e-4 · 6.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.31e-4 · 6.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.72e-4 · 13.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.72e-4 · 13.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.16e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.16e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.61e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.61e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.63e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.63e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.60e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.60e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.45e-4 · 17.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.45e-4 · 17.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.76e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.76e-7 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.04e-4 · 30.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.04e-4 · 30.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.37e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.37e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.02e-4 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.02e-4 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.69e-4 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.69e-4 · 8.6% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=3.43h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 30.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.975e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-17.02×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -17.26400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -17.26
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -18.60σ ann 109% · Sortino -9.78 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2232%-1760%-1287%-814%-342%131%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)109.3%Ann. vol σ-1860.2%Sharpe (ann)-977.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0120.0130.0130.0130.0140.014t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:38:56 UTC
Snapshot age
3.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:39:00 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
f61c24ad41506fcd3e93e4cf8f898b7efbbead80a74e1df5a6916060ab40eebf · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,270.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.88

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$958
bid $300 · ask $658
Depth within 10bp
$958
bid $300 · ask $658
Depth within 50bp
$25.13K
bid $8.92K · ask $16.21K
Mid price
0.012795
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.155
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.322
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SAGA/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0128036.58bp0.0128102FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01281515.78bp0.0128304FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.01287562.91bp0.01303020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0127839.38bp0.0127802FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01275630.29bp0.0127307FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.012610144.35bp0.01245020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-SAGA/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$16.46M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-SAGA/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.381 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$5.02M
real volume
Sell weight
$11.18M
real volume
Net delta
$6.17M
sellers net
Imbalance
-38.07%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
38.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-SAGA/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 4.26% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 07:00:00Z6.0h0.013370→0.0128004.263%7
#22026-06-13 21:00:00Z5.0h0.013620→0.0131303.598%6
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.013270→0.0130901.356%1

/api/asset/hl-SAGA/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
109.29%
σ per bar = 0.000477
Mean return (annualised)
-2032.88%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-18.60
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.68%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 4153 bars

/api/asset/hl-SAGA/risk · same metrics, JSON